中辉有色观点-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Consider trial long positions. The Iran - US situation is volatile, with many uncontrollable factors. There are still recession trades and liquidity crises, and the main war - participating countries have significant differences. Radical long - term investors can watch for the bottom. [1] - Silver: Mainly on the sidelines. Short - term trading focuses on inflation and stagflation, and silver is under pressure. The fundamental factors are ignored, and the end of the Iran situation is unknown. [1] - Copper: Range - bound. The Middle - East situation may worsen, the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. However, domestic copper social inventory is decreasing, and demand is picking up. In the long - term, the outlook for copper is positive. [1][6] - Zinc: Rebound. The Middle - East situation may deteriorate, overseas smelters may cut production, and zinc inventories at home and abroad are decreasing. [1][9] - Lead: Rebound under pressure. The lead market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with excessive inventory accumulation in the first quarter and poor downstream demand. [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and downstream orders are relatively flat. [1] - Aluminum: Rebound. There is an expectation of tightened bauxite supply overseas, and electrolytic aluminum in the Middle - East may cut production. Domestic inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure. The issue of Indonesian export ore tax continues to cause disruptions, domestic nickel inventory is high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is accumulating due to poor consumption. [1] - Industrial silicon: Pressured to decline. Industry meetings bring anti -内卷 policy expectations, but the supply - demand imbalance restricts price elasticity. [1] - Polysilicon: Decline. In April, polysilicon production resumes, but downstream silicon wafer production is reduced, and the industry is in a state of inventory accumulation. [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation. Total inventory is slightly increasing, and production recovery makes price increases difficult. There are uncertainties in the supply side, and long positions can be closed at high prices. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold and silver showed small fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% to 1014.88, and COMEX gold rose 0.42% to 4540. SHFE silver rose 1.25% to 17707, and COMEX silver rose 0.59% to 70. [2] - Basic Logic: The Iran war situation has escalated, and Powell has soothed the market. The core factors suppressing precious metals are the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the outflow of ETF funds, and concerns about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. However, the four underlying logics of the long - term bull market in precious metals remain unchanged. [3] - Strategy: Gold should pay attention to the support around 970 in the short - term, and silver should pay attention to the performance around 17000. [3] Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices showed a range - bound trend. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. LME copper rose 0.44% to 12195 US dollars/ton. [4] - Industry Logic: Global copper ore supply is tight, copper concentrate processing fees are - 69 US dollars/ton. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased, but it is expected to increase in March. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect copper smelting. After the sharp decline in copper prices, downstream demand has recovered, and domestic social inventory has decreased. [5] - Strategy: Copper will be range - bound, waiting for the Middle - East situation to become clear. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper range is [94500, 97500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper range is [12000, 12500] US dollars/ton. [6] Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.98% to 23650 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose 2.43% to 3182 US dollars/ton. [7] - Industry Logic: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Some domestic smelters have cut production, and downstream consumption has improved. The Middle - East situation has affected energy prices, and overseas smelters may cut production. [8] - Strategy: Zinc prices will continue to rebound. In the long - term, resource protectionism may affect supply. The Shanghai zinc range is [23000, 24000] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc range is [3100, 3300] US dollars/ton. [9] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closing price was 3441.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.78%, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 3.30% to 24725 yuan/ton. [10] - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. In the Middle - East, short - term supply is disrupted, and new electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up. Domestic aluminum inventory is high, but downstream processing enterprise operating rates are rising. The alumina industry has an oversupply situation, and inventory is high. [12] - Strategy: Temporarily observe the Shanghai aluminum market, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [23000 - 25500] yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure. The LME nickel closing price was 17350 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.78%, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.01% to 137120 yuan/ton. [14] - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in 2026 is weak. Indonesia may adjust nickel ore production quotas, but the expectation of tightened supply is weakened. Domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless - steel market is in the peak - season transition stage, with inventory slightly increasing. [16] - Strategy: Temporarily observe the nickel and stainless - steel markets, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless - steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract operating range is [125000 - 145000] yuan/ton. [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened higher and maintained a strong operation, rising more than 4%. [19] - Industry Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and total inventory is slightly increasing. Domestic mica mine mining license issues and overseas lithium ore policies may affect supply. Although new - energy vehicle sales are poor, material production is still full - capacity, which may support lithium carbonate prices. [20] - Strategy: Close long positions at high prices in the range of [165000 - 175000] yuan/ton. [21]