国泰君安期货-商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4]. - Silver: Drops from the trading range [2][4]. - Copper: A stronger US dollar restricts price recovery [2][7]. - Zinc: Shows a slightly bullish trend [2][10]. - Lead: Lacks driving forces and prices fluctuate [2][13]. - Tin: Trades within a range [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply issues continue to escalate [2][20]. - Alumina: Shows a slightly bearish trend [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Mainly trades in a sideways range [2][24]. - Palladium: Trades in a narrow range [2][24]. - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][36]. - Stainless steel: Prices fluctuate as demand and cost factors compete [2][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D increased by 1.59% and 1.66% respectively, with trading volumes decreasing. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D increased by 1.13% and 0.54% respectively, with trading volumes showing different trends [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 192,945 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2,628 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 250,587 ounces [4]. - Macro - News: Powell stated that the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position", and traders expect a possible rate cut this year. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.18%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Copper 3M increased by 0.44%, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 tons [7]. - Macro - News: Similar to gold, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news. Industry news shows that China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.68%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M increased by 1.07%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing [10]. - News: Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point plan", and the Iran - related war is changing the energy pattern [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.36%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Lead 3M increased by 0.69%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing [13]. - News: Similar to copper, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 4.20%, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The closing price of LME Tin 3M increased by 0.35%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest decreasing [17]. - Macro - News: Similar to other metals, including Powell's remarks and some policy - related news [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased, with trading volume and open interest showing different trends. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract increased [20]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the inventory of LME aluminum ingots decreased [20]. - News: Powell's remarks and Trump's threat to Iran [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum futures and related spot increased, while the prices of palladium futures and related spot showed mixed trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed differently [25]. - Macro - News: Policy is in a favorable position, and private credit does not pose a systemic risk. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have changed, and there are various events related to the Iran situation [27][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests showed different trends [37]. - Industry News: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, and some nickel - related companies have production - related news. Inventory data shows changes in refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories [37][43].