方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The international raw sugar price has strengthened due to factors such as the high - price of Brazilian ethanol and the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in India. In China, the sugar production is expected to slow down as southern sugar mills start to shut down, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [4]. - Pulp: The game between buyers and sellers in the wood pulp spot market continues. The downstream demand for finished paper is approaching the peak season, but the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost - side support for pulp has increased, but the upward drive for pulp prices is limited in the short term. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4][5]. - Double - offset Paper: The start - up rate of double - offset paper has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost - side upward drive is not strong. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short term, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [6][7]. - Cotton: The external market has limited new negative factors, and the domestic market is digesting the negative news of increased imports. The medium - term support for cotton prices remains, and the futures price is expected to enter a support range and return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - Apple: The decline in apple futures prices is mainly due to differences in the value of taking delivery. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption - side support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [9]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price is in a low - level weak shock. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy - Apple 2605: Return to wait - and - see. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price continues to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Short - term buy on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to reach its peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures Strategy - Sugar 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved. The southern sugar mills in China are starting to shut down, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of broad - leaf pulp has driven the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Range operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn has put short - term pressure on the market, but the outer - market has stabilized and rebounded, and the medium - term upward trend of the futures price remains unchanged. The support range is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure range is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - Spot Market Situation: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the trading volume in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume for the Tomb - sweeping Festival is acceptable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - Jujube Market: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a decrease of 117 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - Sugar Market: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also decreased. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the same period last year. As of March 30, 25/26 season in Guangxi, 37 sugar mills have shut down, with a shutdown capacity of 332,000 tons per day [24]. - Pulp Market: After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. The price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and sellers announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and watching by buyers. The terminal users' resistance sentiment intensified, the domestic market trading was weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increased by 205,000 tons [27]. - Double - offset Paper Market: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the start - up load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [28]. - Cotton Market: As of March 29, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and carried out notarized inspection on cotton, with an inspection quantity of 33,712,814 bales and an inspection weight of 7.61 million tons. From March 20 to 26, 2026, the United States graded and inspected 3,700 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, and 82.2% of the lint met the delivery requirements of ICE cotton futures [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9863 | - 104 | - 1.04% | | Jujube 2605 | 8775 | - 95 | - 1.07% | | Sugar 2605 | 5441 | - 23 | - 0.42% | | Pulp 2605 | 5182 | - 20 | - 0.38% | | Cotton 2605 | 15385 | - 10 | - 0.06% | [30] - Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5460 | 0 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5180 | - 40 | - 1300 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16823 | 9 | 1959 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no text description of the basis situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1100 | - 100 | 1006 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 385 | - 35 | - 80 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 26 | - 3 | - 127 | Oscillate | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 130 | 5 | 15 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no text description of the futures position situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4273 | 0 | - 2341 | | Sugar | 16862 | 520 | - 10548 | | Pulp | 188163 | 2601 | - 187102 | | Cotton | 12435 | 1 | 3160 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no text description of the option - related data, only relevant figure references are provided.