宁证期货今日早评-20260331

Group 1: Metals and Precious Metals - Silver: Powell's speech dispels market expectations of an interest rate hike, and maintaining or cutting rates is the main logic. There is uncertainty within the Fed. Global stock markets are down, risk appetite is weak, and silver's upward momentum is weaker than gold's, passively following gold's fluctuations, with a mid - term range - bound trend [1] - Gold: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz may ease in terms of passage but fees may rise, and inflation expectations may temporarily ease. Fed officials signal no immediate rate hikes, weakening short - term upward momentum, but risk aversion is rising. Gold still has rebound demand and a mid - term wide - range oscillation pattern [6] - Aluminum: Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked, causing aluminum prices to surge. If production cuts in the Middle East materialize, the global aluminum supply gap will widen. The domestic market has not entered the de - stocking cycle, but downstream demand is picking up. Short - term prices may remain strong, but there is a risk of technical correction [8] - Alumina: The domestic alumina supply is in excess, but cost support exists due to Guinea's export restrictions and rising shipping costs. Demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Zinc: Sulfuric acid price increases support zinc prices from the cost side. Domestic refinery profits are improving, but supply may tighten in the second quarter. Demand from the galvanizing industry is rising, and social inventory is decreasing. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10] Group 2: Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is recovering, port inventory is decreasing, and imports are down. The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [2] - Crude Oil: Iran's parliament has passed a bill to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The low traffic in the Strait and its expected situation are the key factors for oil prices. Short - term operation should be cautious, and the mid - term upward driving force will be stronger as the war continues [12] - PTA: PTA production and capacity utilization are increasing, but downstream polyester sales are poor due to high raw material prices. There is an expected inventory build - up in March. Cost is affected by PX supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Short - term caution is needed, and mid - term strategy is to go long at low levels [13] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Pork: The national pig price is stable, with slight adjustments in some areas. Demand growth is limited, and the price is bottom - oscillating. The spot market has a stronger price - support sentiment, and the futures market has a bottom - fishing sentiment but has not reversed. Focus on the slaughter volume and the reduction of sows [7] - Palm Oil: Indonesia may advance the B50 biodiesel plan, and international crude oil prices are high. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [7] - Soybean Meal: Some oil mills' soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and downstream procurement is cautious. Other mills' operation is stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. Brazilian quarantine process relaxation may suppress short - term prices, which are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Raw material prices are high, providing strong cost support. Thai and Vietnamese rubber plantations are expected to start tapping in early April. Chinese social inventory is starting to decrease. Demand from domestic tire enterprises is stable after the Spring Festival, but the market has a weaker expectation for future orders. Long - term prices show a bottom - rising trend, and short - term prices are in a wide - range oscillation [15] Group 4: Others - Two - year Treasury Bonds: Most short - term Shibor varieties are down, indicating a looser capital market, which is favorable for the short - term bond market. The two - year and five - year bond markets are rebounding, and there is a short - term rebound demand. Attention should be paid to whether the mid - term oscillation pattern can be broken [4] - Rebar: Affected by the Middle East conflict, the steel market faces "cost support + export obstacles". Domestic steel consumption is slowly recovering, and high inventory restricts price increases. Short - term price increases may be limited [4] - Coke: Short - term supply and demand of coke are both increasing, and the iron - making production recovery is faster. The cost of coke is rising, and the expectation of price increase is strong. The coke futures price will follow the coking coal price. If the geopolitical conflict eases, there will be a callback pressure [5] - Silicone Iron: The silicone iron industry has a serious over - capacity problem. The recovery of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production, and the supply - demand relationship will become looser. There is a callback risk in the medium - long term [5] - Soda Ash: The float glass industry is stable, with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market fluctuates slightly, with individual price cuts. Downstream demand is general, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [10] - PVC: PVC supply is increasing, inventory is stable, downstream operation rate is rising but still lower than last year. Downstream resistance is strong after price increases, and export demand is poor. Cost is supported by high - priced crude oil. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate slightly weakly [11]