碳酸锂：宏观叠加供应扰动区间震荡，成材，重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market will experience range-bound fluctuations due to the combination of macro factors and supply disturbances [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Market - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate continued to rise to 171,620 yuan/ton, with a significant reduction in trading volume and a slight decrease in positions. The warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased compared to the previous day. The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 164,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' shipping sentiment improved, while downstream material manufacturers' restocking willingness was weak [3]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to cause disturbances, but Trump has signaled an end to the war. In the short term, the domestic lithium ore supply is supported by mining disturbances, but attention should be paid to the potential downward risk caused by the loosening of policies in Zimbabwe [3]. Raw Material Fundamentals - On the supply side, last week, the prices of raw materials were divided. The CIF price of spodumene concentrate in China increased slightly, while the domestic spot price decreased slightly. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 56.57%, and the total output increased to 24,814 tons, with the overall supply steadily increasing [4]. - On the demand side, ternary lithium iron continued the trend of increasing production and inventory. The production and sales of energy storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight. From March to April, the intensive release of new models is expected to drive a marginal improvement in demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM four - region social inventory decreased to 39,300 tons; the sample weekly inventory increased to 99,500 tons in a cumulative manner but was still at a relatively low level, and the total inventory days increased to 27.9 days. Structurally, both upstream and downstream increased inventory, while traders reduced inventory [4]. Macro - Policy Level - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to cause disturbances, and although Trump has signaled an end to the war, macro uncertainties still exist [4]. - Domestically, the comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost support center. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term balance of supply and demand. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [4].