申万期货品种策略日报：生猪（LH）-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall national hog market remains stable. The average ex-farm price of outer three-yuan hogs is 9.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The market is characterized by a pattern of "reduced supply and weak demand". The supply of hogs at the end of the month decreased by 5.21% month-on-month, and the entry of secondary fattening provided support for local prices. However, the slaughter volume of downstream slaughtering enterprises only increased slightly by 0.69%, and the terminal consumption capacity was insufficient. The loss of the breeding end has narrowed slightly, but the average loss per head of self-breeding and self-raising still exceeds 330 yuan. The current market is intertwined with positive (end-of-month supply reduction, secondary fattening) and negative (weak demand) factors, and the fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged. It is expected that hog prices will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Change: The previous day's closing prices of hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,165, 12,945, 10,005, 11,065, 12,275, and 12,645 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they changed by -260, -250, +40, -115, -245, and -260, with corresponding percentage changes of -1.94%, -1.89%, 0.40%, -1.03%, -1.96%, and -2.01% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of the above contracts were 10,843, 2,633, 131,149, 39,091, 30,050, and 10,972 respectively. The open interests were 29,270, 4,316, 189,319, 91,019, 83,715, and 48,283 respectively, with changes of +1,706, +835, -13,267, +2,618, +3,043, and +652 [2] - Price Spreads: The current spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 220, 2,940, -1,060, -1,210, -370, and -520 respectively, compared with the previous values of 230, 3,230, -1,215, -1,340, -385, and -520 [2] Spot Market - Spot Prices: The current spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 9.54, 9.26, 9.32, 10.05, 9.34, and 9.34 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by +0.08, -18.62, 0, 0, +0.23, and +0.23 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 441, a decrease of 42 compared with two days ago [2]