黑色金属数据日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, the market is oscillating. There are opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils. It's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and gradually enter the opportunity to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils for spot - futures trading [5][10] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is improving with cost support. The trading strategy is to go short - term long on dips [6][10] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market sentiment is further cooling. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and stop profiting on the previously recommended spot - futures positive arbitrage positions [7][10] - For iron ore, the price is mainly oscillating at a high level. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and operate within the oscillating range instead of chasing high or low [8][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Prices and Changes: On March 30, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3168 yuan/ton with a rise of 20 yuan (0.64%); HC2610 at 3323 yuan/ton with a rise of 17 yuan (0.51%); J2609 at 1842 yuan/ton with a rise of 6 yuan (0.33%); JM2609 at 1352.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.22%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton with a rise of 18 yuan (0.58%); HC2605 at 3308 yuan/ton with a rise of 11 yuan (0.33%); J2605 at 1753.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 3.5 yuan (0.20%); JM2605 at 1214 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan (- 0.33%) [1] - Inter - month Spreads: On March 30, RB2605 - 2610 was - 29 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 15 yuan/ton with a fall of 4 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton with a fall of 2 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 138.5 yuan/ton with a fall of 0.5 yuan [1] - Spreads, Ratios and Profits: On March 30, the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 169 yuan/ton with a fall of 6 yuan; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.86 with a rise of 0.01; the coal to coke ratio was 1.44 with a rise of 0.01; the rebar on - paper profit was - 136.95 yuan/ton with a rise of 12.6 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 138.88 yuan/ton with a rise of 8.15 yuan [1] Spot Market - Steel Spot Prices: On March 30, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3230 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420 yuan/ton with a fall of 50 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton with a fall of 20 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan/ton with no change; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton with a rise of 50 yuan; the billet - to - finished - product spread was 290 yuan/ton with a rise of 60 yuan [1] - Other Spot Prices: On March 30, the price of ferrosilicon was 670 yuan/ton with no change; silicomanganese was 727 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal at Ganqimao Port (Meng 5 raw coal) was 1141 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan; Meng 5 clean coal at Ganqimao Port was 1308 yuan/ton with no change; Meng 5 clean coal in Hebei Tangshan was 1450 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB iron ore was 792 yuan/ton with a rise of 4 yuan [1] - Basis: On March 30, the HC main - contract basis was - 28 yuan/ton with a fall of 9 yuan; the RB main - contract basis was 111 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan; the J main - contract basis was - 180.87 yuan/ton with a fall of 1.5 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 126 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Steel: The spot price was stable on Monday with a small increase in most regions. The market sentiment was generally stable. The weekly production, sales and inventory showed improvement, and the supply - demand boom could be maintained. The plate apparent demand reached the seasonal peak, while the building materials still had room to grow. The cost support fluctuated due to geopolitical issues, and the single - side trading shifted to an oscillating strategy. There were opportunities to go long on the basis or conduct spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [5] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply - demand situation improved. The ferrosilicon industry's weekly supply increased slightly, while the silicomanganese production decreased slightly. The steel mill demand improved significantly, and the non - steel demand also provided marginal support. The inventory pressure was controllable, and the cost was supported by the strong coal and manganese ore prices [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market sentiment further cooled. The auction prices mostly fell. The futures market was dominated by the Middle - East situation. The coal - coke 05 contract was weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the 05 delivery logic. It was recommended to stop profiting on the previously recommended coke selling hedging strategy as the basis strengthened [7] - Iron Ore: The price was oscillating at a high level. It was difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, and it was also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. It was not recommended to chase long on the iron ore futures, and it was advisable to operate within the oscillating range [8]