美方称地缘局势略有缓解，贵金属价格企稳

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With Trump's remarks, market risk sentiment has slightly eased and the liquidity shock has slightly reversed. Gold prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but there is still upward room in the medium to long term. The Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 960 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also showing signs of stabilization and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The Ag2606 contract may fluctuate between 17100 yuan/kilogram and 18100 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitically, Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the ceasefire plan. The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached. Iran said it would cause a power outage in the region if its power facilities are attacked. Iran's foreign ministry said it has not had direct negotiations with the US and the so - called "15 - point ceasefire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable" [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On March 30, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 993.46 yuan/gram, closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, a 1.62% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1011.48 yuan/gram, a 0.33% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17080.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 17707.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1060304 lots and the open interest was 233885 lots. In the night session, it opened at 17949 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17679 yuan/kilogram, a 0.16% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 30, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.352%, a +0.40BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, a +0.81BP change from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On March 30, 2026, in the Au2606 contract, the long position changed by 9544 lots and the short position changed by 3787 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 505475 lots, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2606 contract, the long position changed by 2123 lots and the short position changed by 8930 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1592496 lots, an 8.38% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,049.56 tons, a decrease of 3.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,288 tons, a decrease of 121 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 30, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 6.70 yuan/gram and the domestic silver premium was - 37.09 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.32, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 65.34, a - 1.04% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 91148 kilograms, a - 4.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 294236 kilograms, a - 31.79% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]