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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The negotiation between the US and Iran has no obvious progress, and both sides have started a new round of chicken game. If the situation develops to the worst, the power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will face a high risk of being attacked, leading to a short - term upward risk for oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - As of the day's close, the May - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the May - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose 21 cents to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.41% at 760 yuan per barrel [1]. - The Kuwaiti oil tanker "Al - Salmi" was attacked by Iran in Dubai Port, causing hull damage and fire on board, but no casualties. The incident may lead to oil spills in the surrounding waters [1]. - The US Treasury extended the license to allow negotiations and signing of contingent contracts for the sale of Rosneft International's equity until May 1 [1]. - Sri Lanka's Ceypetco is negotiating with Russian oil companies to import petroleum products due to limited oil supply and soaring prices in the Middle East. It usually buys most of its crude oil from the UAE, and refined oil products from India and Singapore [1]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will hold a national cabinet meeting to address the energy crisis, with the main focus on strengthening the supply chain and discussing fuel rationing [1]. - Mexican President Obrador said that private companies are trying to buy fuel from Mexico's state - owned oil company and transport it to Cuba [1]. Investment Logic The lack of progress in US - Iran negotiations and the threats between the two sides increase the risk of attacks on power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, resulting in short - term upward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy Due to the high volatility of oil prices affected by short - term geopolitical situations, it is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3]. Risks - Downward risks: The Middle East war eases, the Strait resumes navigation, and the energy crisis triggers a global economic crisis [4]. - Upward risks: The suspension time of the Strait of Hormuz exceeds expectations [4].