下游刚需采购，整体补库积极性有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market stopped falling and stabilized this week, with inventory reduction and import impact coexisting, and the approaching off - season suppressing consumption. It is recommended to operate within a range, with SHFE lead focusing on the range of 16300 - 16850 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On March 30, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot remained unchanged at 16350 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16375 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9750 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9850 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10050 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On March 30, 2026, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16535 yuan/ton and closed at 16495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 50614 lots, a decrease of 6171 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 62160 lots, a decrease of 3956 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16535 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16415 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16535 yuan/ton and closed at 16495 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The intraday SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, making the spot market generally dull [2] Inventory - On March 30, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283000 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]