Group 1: Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.06%, at 4,572 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.38%, at 5,198 yuan/ton [1] - The current situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The impact of the oil supply disruption will gradually become apparent [2] Group 2: Market Conditions of High-Sulfur and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil has a relatively high supply share from the Middle East and a large exposure to geopolitical conflict risks. The increase in exports from Russia and Venezuela can hedge the gap to some extent, and the previously accumulated land and floating storage inventories can also serve as short-term sources of goods for downstream. However, if the strait remains closed for too long, the fundamentals are expected to tighten further [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, refineries in the Asia-Pacific region have reduced their production due to a shortage of raw materials, leading to a passive decline in output. In addition, the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low-sulfur fuel oil market. Currently, the diesel crack spread remains strong, supporting the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil [2] - Overall, for the market structure of high- and low-sulfur fuel oil to weaken trendily, a definite signal of easing from the US-Iran negotiations is needed. Market sentiment premiums will be repeatedly disturbed by news, so caution is required [2] Group 3: Strategies - For high-sulfur fuel oil, there will be short-term sharp fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, there will be short-term sharp fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - There are no strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, options [3] Group 4: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [4]
局势仍不明朗,市场高位震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-03-31 05:23