新能源及有色金属日报：中东电解铝实际减产扩大-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Long - term fundamentals of aluminum are still optimistic, although there are short - term concerns about domestic export markets due to transportation disruptions in the Middle East. For alumina, the price will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term and the price center will rise in the long term due to raw material disturbances [6][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On March 30, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,530 yuan/ton, a change of 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by - 20 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,430 yuan/ton, a change of 710 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,815 yuan/ton, closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, a change of 820 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,840 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 438,973 lots, and the open interest was 263,928 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 30, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.373 million tons, a change of 24,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 412,452 tons, a change of 4,255 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 418,675 tons, a change of - 2,200 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 30, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,805 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,810 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,775 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,810 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 315 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,945 yuan/ton, closed at 2,941 yuan/ton, a change of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.00%, a maximum price of 2,956 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,908 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 353,124 lots, and the open interest was 202,711 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 30, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,135 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 665 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the Middle East, the electrolytic aluminum in Abu Dhabi, UAE was completely shut down due to bombing. As of now, the production cut in the Middle East has exceeded 2 million tons, and there may be further production cuts due to raw material or energy supply problems. Overseas consumption has not been substantially affected, overseas inventory is still declining, and the LME premium is rising. Although the Middle East issue is not resolved, the market sentiment is becoming more stable. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum alloy has decreased, laying the foundation for the future destocking of aluminum ingots [6] Alumina - In Guangxi, two transactions on the same day were at 2,870 yuan/ton and 2,730 yuan/ton, with trading volumes of 3,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively. The export limit policy of bauxite in Guinea is not clear. One large - scale mine has stopped one excavator, reducing the daily output by 9,000 tons. The policy may support the cost. The supply of alumina is still in surplus, the social inventory is slightly rising, and the domestic and foreign market prices are strengthening. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and in the long term, the price center will rise due to raw material disturbances [7][8]