利率曲线陡峭化之后，重点看什么？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - A steepening bond market trend in the past is a reference. In the first half of 2009, there was a notable "short - end down, long - end up" situation in 1y and 10y treasury bonds, similar to March this year. The key is to judge the trend of credit expansion. If credit expansion is weak, the long - end interest rate has a clear ceiling and will reverse after adjustment. For now, the weak bill rate in March indicates that credit投放 momentum is hard to sustain, and the net financing of government bonds has no significant increase. So, the social financing growth rate is likely to decline in the second quarter, presenting a long - end trend opportunity [1]. - After the curve steepens, two key factors are the central bank's support and credit expansion. Without credit expansion, economic stabilization may not be sustainable, and long - end yields are likely to decline, leading to a "compressing spread" (bull steepening) scenario [2][10]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1 Curve Steepening: Key Considerations - The situation in March this year is similar to that in the first half of 2009. The central bank's sufficient liquidity injection and continuous support led to short - end yields following the funds and moving lower. Meanwhile, long - end yields oscillated upward as they were influenced by economic recovery and inflation expectations [7][8]. - After the curve steepens, two crucial factors are the central bank's stance and credit expansion. As long as the global political situation is complex and the financial market is volatile, the central bank is likely to maintain stability. Credit expansion is crucial for economic recovery, and it can crowd out bond - allocating funds and affect market expectations. Without credit expansion, long - end rates are more likely to decline, and the bond market still has trend opportunities [2][10][11]. 2 Steepening Market in the First Half of 2009 2.1 Prelude: Policy Shift Caused by the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis and Curve "Bull Steepening" - In July 2008, the Politburo meeting focused on controlling inflation. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis fully erupted in September 2008, economic data deteriorated significantly, and the policy shifted to "stable growth" [13][14]. - The government adopted "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policies. The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio three times, lowered interest rates four times, and carried out open - market operations. The government also launched a 4 - trillion - yuan stimulus plan, leading to an increase in long - term bond issuance. The yield curve showed a bull - steepening pattern starting from October 2008 [16][17][20]. 2.2 How Did the Bull Steepening Market in 2009 Unfold? 2.2.1 Steepening from January to July 2009: "Stable Low - level Funding Rates + Recovery Expectations" - Short - end: The release of reserve - requirement - cut funds and the high degree of deposit current - account conversion led to low - level funding rates. Although the central bank did not cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates in the first half of 2009, it continued to support the market. The 1 - year treasury bond rate oscillated in the range of 0.90% - 1.00% from March to June, after adjustments in January and February [28][29]. - Long - end: The market was caught in a tug - of - war over "recovery expectations." At the beginning of the year, the better - than - expected credit data led to a short - term recovery trade in the bond market. However, due to the ample funds of allocation - oriented investors, long - term bond rates oscillated until the end of May when they started to rise again [32]. 2.2.2 From July to December 2009: The Central Bank Exited "Excessive Easing" + Long - Term Bonds Were Traded Based on Economic Recovery Expectations - Short - end: In July, the central bank restarted the issuance of 1 - year central bank bills, indicating a shift from excessive easing to a tighter monetary policy. The 1 - year short - term bond rate rose from around 0.98% to around 1.49% by the end of the year [39]. - Long - end: Interest rates oscillated upward following economic expectations. The 10 - year treasury bond rate fluctuated due to factors such as economic data, bond supply, and inflation expectations. By the end of December, the 10 - year treasury bond yield was around 3.64% [42][45][46].