纸浆：震荡运行20260331

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with limited changes in the main contract. The spot market quotes remained stable. There is a lack of clear news guidance, and market participants are mostly on the sidelines. The downstream demand is also weak, with a "buy - as - you - use" pattern continuing. The core contradiction between high - level port inventory and cautious paper mill purchases persists [4]. - The price of the household paper market is mainly stable, with general trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The cost support of raw material pulp is not strong, and the terminal demand improvement is difficult. The inventory reduction process of some paper enterprises has slowed down. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and the release rhythm of demand - side orders [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,182 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,162 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The trading volume was 204,927 lots, a decrease of 79,731 lots; the open interest was 139,000 lots, a decrease of 14,678 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,601 tons to 188,163 tons. The net position of the top 20 members increased by 259 lots to - 20,663 lots [3]. - Spread Data: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main Contract" increased by 20 to 18; the basis of "Goldfish - Futures Main Contract (Non - standard)" increased by 20 to - 582. The monthly spread of SP05 - SP07 increased by 8 to - 34 [3]. - Spot Market: Among coniferous pulps, the domestic prices of Northwood and Cariboo were 5,450 yuan/ton, the price of Moon was 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of Silver Star was 5,200 yuan/ton, with an international price of 710 US dollars/ton. Among broad - leaf pulps, the prices of Golden Island and Star were 4,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Star had an international price of 620 US dollars/ton. The price of chemical mechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural color pulp (Venus) was 4,800 yuan/ton, with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3]. b. Industry News - The pulp futures market had a narrow - range consolidation, with limited changes in the main contract. The spot market quotes remained stable. The lack of clear news led to a wait - and - see attitude among market participants. The downstream demand market was also weak, and the real - order transactions were mainly sporadic and for immediate needs. The key contradiction between high - level port inventory and cautious paper mill purchases continued. Attention should be paid to the settlement of overseas markets and changes in downstream restocking willingness [4]. - The household paper market price was stable, with general trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The cost support from the raw material pulp market was weak, and the terminal demand was difficult to improve significantly. Some paper enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the inventory reduction process slowed down. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and the release rhythm of demand - side orders [5]. c. Trend Intensity The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) on a scale of integer values [3].