短期供给扰动加剧，碳酸锂价格强势运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate price is running strongly due to short - term supply disturbances and good downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the commodity market atmosphere. Short - term interval operations are recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 169,440 yuan/ton and closed at 171,620 yuan/ton, with a 4.53% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 199,887 lots, and the open interest was 237,761 lots (the previous day's open interest was 247,637 lots). The current basis was - 5,440 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,064 lots, a change of 953 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 160,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 157,000 - 165,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,335 US dollars/ton, a change of 100 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM statistics, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the domestic supply is generally stable, with an increase in supply this week. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate was 24,814 tons, including 15,314 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene, 3,227 tons from mica, 3,715 tons from salt lakes, and 2,558 tons from recycling [1]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 99,489 tons, a month - on - month increase of 616 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a month - on - month increase of 724 tons; the downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 552 tons; other inventories were 35,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 660 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories increased, while other inventories decreased, and the lithium carbonate inventory showed an inflection point this week [2]. Comprehensive Review - The recent rise in the market is mainly due to supply - side disturbances: 1) The export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for one month, and the impact has not ended. According to the annual expected volume of 220,000 tons, the monthly impact volume is about 15,000 tons; 2) The resumption time of lithium mica mines in Yichun is to be determined, which affects the short - term market sentiment; 3) The Middle East war has pushed up oil prices. The diesel inventory in Australia can only last for 15 - 30 days. High oil prices affect the mining industry, causing market concerns about Australian ore supply. If the Middle East war lasts for a long time, the supply gap of lithium carbonate may exceed the initial expectation [2]. Strategy - The lithium carbonate price is strong. Among the non - ferrous sectors, lithium carbonate is the variety with the smoothest logic and the best fundamentals. Short - term supply disturbances are strong, downstream demand is good, and the long - term logic of energy security is smooth. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the commodity market atmosphere. Short - term interval operations are recommended [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term operations are the main focus. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None.