金银3月报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the macro - mainline, putting pressure on gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Part: Market Review and Prospect - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, with their units being US dollars per ounce, US dollars per ounce, yuan per gram, and yuan per kilogram respectively [12][14] 3.2 Third Part: Macroeconomic Factors - It shows the Turkish central bank's announcement and the US dollar/Turkish lira trend, along with data on official reserve assets in millions of US dollars [21] - The FedWatch data before and after the war (February 27th and March 27th, 2026) are presented, including the conditional meeting probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in various Fed meetings from 2026 to 2027 [26][27] - Information on the average number of new non - farm and ADP employment in the US in March, as well as the structure of new non - farm employment, is provided [31] - The report also shows the US CPI and PPI data [32] 3.3 Fourth Part: Fundamental Factors - Gold supply - demand balance data from 2014 to 2025 are presented, including supply components such as total supply, recycling, and industrial use, and demand components such as jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases. There are also data on the year - on - year changes in 2024 and 2025 [39] - The flow changes of gold ETFs in different regions and the global gold ETF holdings are shown [40] - The inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market are presented, along with the total inventory of four exchanges and the domestic silver premium/discount (against silver T + D) [47][50][51] - The export and import situations of silver in China are shown, including the export and import volumes of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% from 2023 to 2026 [54][56] - The total global silver ETF holdings, the holdings of leading silver ETFs, and the silver lease rate are presented [59][60]