低估值工业品的暗流涌动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on steel is on the stronger side. The market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Currently, there are many repetitions in overseas geopolitical issues, and the problem of crude oil navigation has not been clearly resolved. If the game time continues to be prolonged, it will have a greater impact on oil supply, which will then be transmitted to related substitutes such as coal. Recently, countries exporting various minerals have seen varying degrees of decline in the available days of diesel, so attention should be paid to the production of overseas raw material ends. Fundamentally, hot metal is slowly recovering. The total output of five types of finished steel products has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. Rebar production has decreased and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil production has increased and inventory has decreased. In the short term, it is mainly weakly stable. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented. The profits of long - process steel mills in the spot market are average, and the profits of short - process steel mills during off - peak hours have slightly rebounded. Currently, there is sector rotation, and the black sector is still in the bottom range. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in related low - valued varieties [3]. - The view on the month spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, and it is in a low - level shock [3]. - The view on steel mill profits is on the stronger side. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises is 43.29%, slightly rising month - on - month, but still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][13]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current marginal cost of electric arc furnace steel mills in East China results in a loss of 97 yuan/ton during peak hours and a profit of 9 yuan/ton during off - peak hours [3]. - The view on finished steel inventory is neutral. The overall inventory of five types of finished steel products is seasonally increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of March 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output is 231.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9 tons, lower than the same period last year. According to Mysteel research data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises nationwide this week is 81.03%, seasonally rising month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces is 58.87%, significantly rising month - on - month and higher than the same period last year [13]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties is 839.58 tons, a decrease of 0.24 tons compared with last week. Among them, the rebar output is 197.87 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46 tons; the hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 5.4 tons. The output of cold - rolled and medium - thick plates is significantly higher than the historical average [19]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week is 887.97 tons, seasonally rising month - on - month. The weekly consumption of rebar is 225.37 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. The consumption of hot - rolled coils is 313.63 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [36]. - After the holiday, the spot trading volume is weakly stable, and the overall trading volume is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [53]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories is 72.75 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, but still much higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses is 250.23 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and it is still at the highest level in the same historical period [71]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased significantly but are still lower than the same period last year. Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts have increased significantly month - on - month and are at a historical high [106]. 3.5 Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of crude steel shows various data from July 2025 to September 2026, including initial and final inventories of steel mills and society, pig iron and crude steel production, import and export volumes, total consumption, production - demand differences, excess volumes, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and consumption [107].