不怕一万，就怕万一？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market is expected to be weak. The market anticipates significant production cuts in the future. This week, production decreased month - on - month, demand declined slightly, and the overall supply - demand remains in an oversupply state. There are concerns about the supply of raw materials for overseas mines, which may affect the mining rhythm in the long term. The price of port manganese ore has risen significantly, and the immediate production profit of alloy plants has been mostly consumed by manganese ore. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy of near - weak and far - strong [3]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is also expected to be weak. The tight balance of supply and demand has eased, the overall production cost is relatively firm, production has decreased slightly, and the production of magnesium metal has declined significantly from its high level. Factory quotes have increased, and low - priced goods are hard to find in the market. The market still has expectations of cost increases in the coal - related industrial chain due to crude oil shortages, and price fluctuations are relatively large. Fundamentally, it is recommended to take a bearish stance, but be vigilant about future coal - related prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 474.5 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 341.4 tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 132.6 tons, also significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased slightly to 237.2 tons, the inventory of Gabon ore decreased significantly to 21.9 tons, far lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of Australian ore decreased significantly to 43.7 tons, still higher than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - In Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 48 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 47 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 44 yuan/ton - degree. The manganese ore market is running strongly, and most market transactions are of a trading nature, while factories are cautious in purchasing and mostly only replenish a small amount of essential inventory [20]. Production - As of March 27, the weekly production of silicon - manganese increased to 19.17 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly to 14,460 tons/day, in Ningxia decreased slightly to 5,705 tons/day, in Yunnan increased to 890 tons/day, in Guizhou increased to 1,905 tons/day, and in Guangxi increased to 1,970 tons/day [32]. Demand - As of March 27, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 11.88 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 839.58 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased significantly month - on - month [37]. Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 6,230 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 6,300 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei set the purchase price at 6,150 yuan/ton in March and replenished 5,100 tons this week [50]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke increased slightly by 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. Production Profit - The point - to - point profit of manganese silicon has improved significantly [57]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 58 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [60]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 26, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28.85 tons [64]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 27, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.21 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,275 tons, in Qinghai was 1,535 tons, in Ningxia was 4,080 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,210 tons [76]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills totaled 1.93 tons, lower than the same period last year [80]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,515 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 17,050 yuan/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19,446 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month but higher than the same period last year. Recently, the prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon have been high, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased accordingly. Low - priced goods in the market are hard to find. Some traders said they are mainly inquiring and not in a hurry to stock up [84]. Export - As of March 27, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,205 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,135 US dollars/ton, increasing significantly month - on - month. The export volume of ferrosilicon decreased in February [87]. Raw Material Situation - As of March 27, the quotes of mainstream regional semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale is 730 yuan/ton [95]. Production Profit - As of March 26, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon has improved significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are 156, 225, 101, and - 193 yuan/ton respectively [110]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of ferrosilicon was - 80 yuan/ton, weakening significantly month - on - month [113]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 26, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.81 tons, higher than the same period last year [116]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [119]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [120].