一季度债券市场及基本面回顾

Group 1 - In Q1 2026, bond yields exhibited an "N" shaped trend, with significant upward movement in 30Y yields, influenced by pre- and post-Spring Festival market dynamics and rising inflation expectations [10][11]. - The bond market experienced a "sharp drop followed by slow recovery" before the Spring Festival, with a notable "see-saw effect" between equity and bond markets [10]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to financing [37][41]. Group 2 - The economic performance at the beginning of 2026 was strong, with a notable recovery in the manufacturing sector as indicated by the March PMI returning to the expansion zone [48][63]. - In January and February, the production sector showed significant strength, with fixed asset investment growth turning positive at 1.8%, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments [59][62]. - The EPMI index saw a substantial increase in March, reflecting robust production recovery and strong demand, with production volume and procurement significantly improving [63][67]. Group 3 - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile and slightly bearish state in Q2, with a continuation of the steepening curve pattern, suggesting potential trading opportunities in the long end [75].