2026年3月PMI数据点评：3月PMI：重返扩张的新剧本

Economic Indicators - In March 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[5] - The March PMI new orders index reached 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points, marking a new high in nearly a year[5] - The PMI production index was at 51.4%, with a modest increase of 1.8 percentage points, reflecting stable production levels[5] Price Trends - The PMI raw materials purchase price index surged to 63.9%, a month-on-month increase of 9.1 percentage points, the highest since Q2 2022[5] - The PMI factory price index increased to 55.4%, up 4.8 percentage points, also the highest since Q2 2022[5] - March's Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to return to positive growth year-on-year, influenced by rising international oil prices[5] Export Performance - The new export orders index for March was 49.1%, a significant increase of 4.1 percentage points, the highest since May 2024, indicating resilience in exports[5] - The overall economic signals suggest a strong demand pull, particularly from the demand side, which outperformed production expectations[5] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization, with the construction PMI rising to 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the services PMI increased to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone[5] - The cautious attitude of enterprises towards future production is reflected in the limited increase of the PMI business expectations index, which rose only 0.2 percentage points[5]