国产豆销售迟滞，油厂开机率回落

1. Overall Situation - The soybean futures and spot prices have fluctuated recently. The main contract of Dou - Yi 2605 has stopped falling in a volatile adjustment, and the spot price has dropped from 4,840 yuan/ton to around 4,700 yuan/ton in Fujin. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 has continued to decline, and the spot price has dropped from 3,300 yuan/ton to around 3,150 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang [3]. 2. Domestic Soybean Sales and Auction - Domestic soybean sales are sluggish, and the sales progress is slow. As of March 27, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang was 30% (unchanged from the previous week), 35% in Anhui (down 1% from the previous week), 39% in Henan (down 1% from the previous week), and 40% in Shandong (down 1% from the previous week). The remaining grain is much higher than the same period last year. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned again at the end of March, with over 200,000 tons auctioned and a low transaction rate [3]. 3. Soybean Import and Arrival - With the listing of South American soybeans, the domestic market may shift to concentrated imports of Brazilian soybeans. As of March 27, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.586 million tons, a week - on - week increase, and the port soybean inventory was 4.828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. 4. U.S. Soybean Situation - U.S. soybeans have been in a volatile consolidation recently. The negotiation between the U.S. and Iran may take place, but the result is unknown, and the crude oil price is still strong. The upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting report is worthy of attention. The planting area of new - season U.S. soybeans may increase, and the previous USDA Outlook Forum predicted it to be 85 million acres (a 4.7% year - on - year increase) [4]. 5. Oil Mill Operations and Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, and the soybean meal inventory has increased. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market is good. As of March 27, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.53%, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 4.8202 million tons, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean meal output was 1.449 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 676,800 tons, a slight week - on - week increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 2.718 million tons, a week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.35 days, a week - on - week increase, indicating strong downstream demand [4]. 6. Feed Demand and Livestock Farming - Feed demand is strong in the short term, but long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the pig - farming industry, pig prices have fallen to extremely low levels, and farming is seriously loss - making. As of March 27, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 189.87 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 344.24 yuan per head. In the poultry industry, egg prices have rebounded, but farming still incurs losses. In February, the sales volume of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in February increased month - on - month. The high inventory of livestock and poultry currently supports feed demand, but the increasing losses may accelerate capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [5]. 7. Market Outlook - Due to the sluggish sales of domestic soybeans and the resumption of state - reserve auctions, and the increase in imports of non - genetically modified soybeans, it is expected that Dou - Yi will enter a high - level volatile state. With the increase in domestic soybean arrivals, attention should be paid to the import of Brazilian soybeans from South America. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, the soybean meal inventory has increased, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean meal will return to a fundamental volatile trend [5].