工业硅震荡下跌，多晶硅超跌修复

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a supply-demand imbalance in the short term and significant price support in the long term [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation, facing cost support challenges and difficulties in demand transmission in the industrial chain [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,480 yuan/ton, a change of -185 yuan/ton (-2.14%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 230,888 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 29, 2026, was 22,289 lots, a change of 12 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 19 was 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous week [1]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the holiday, and most of the post - holiday inquiries were exploratory [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the holiday. However, due to the dry season in the southwest region, the operating rate remained low [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing strong cost support for industrial silicon [2]. Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon remains weak. In the long term, there is obvious price support. The overall pattern is a weak supply - demand balance. Attention should be paid to the restart plans of large manufacturers and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Short - term range operation for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated upward, opening at 35,160 yuan/ton and closing at 36,550 yuan/ton, a change of 3.45% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 34,180 lots (34,584 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 165,316 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 35.50 - 43.00 yuan/kg (-0.50 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 33.20 (a month - on - month change of - 3.49%), the silicon wafer inventory was 26.98GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.42%), the weekly polysilicon output was 19,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 11.38GW (a month - on - month change of - 3.40%) [4]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.99 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.29 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.09 yuan/piece, all unchanged [4]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction prices of components also remained unchanged [6]. - After the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton, the market sentiment was pessimistic. The current price rebound is a super - oversold repair. The supply - demand game continues, the supply side faces increasing production cut pressure, and the downstream battery factories only maintain just - in - time purchases and have a low acceptance of high - price goods [6]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices weakens the cost support for polysilicon. The expected demand from the "rush to export" phenomenon before April has not materialized. Coupled with high inventory, the demand transmission in the industrial chain is difficult. After the holiday, silicon wafer enterprises resumed production but still faced inventory pressure. The recent conflict in the Middle East has cooled the global risk - preference sentiment, which may increase the selling pressure on the market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply - demand recovery; in the long term, attention should be paid to the silver price trend and inventory reduction progress [7]. - Short - term range operation for single - side trading; the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [7].