地缘局势未明，中枢上移难改

Report Industry Investment Rating - BU: Oscillating [1] - FU/LU: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant collapse of the asphalt cracking spread and the extreme compression of production profits have led to a substantial shrinkage in domestic supply. Although the inventory is still at a high level, concerns about the continuous tightening of short - term supply are difficult to alleviate. With the gradual start of road demand in the north in the second quarter, the absolute price of asphalt is unlikely to decline significantly, and the slow repair of the cracking spread is more worthy of attention [2][79] - The fuel oil market has higher elasticity than the asphalt market. It is still in an oscillation period dominated by geopolitical games. The short - term risk is still the instability of supply, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental pricing. In the most optimistic scenario, the supply tension is expected to ease in late April. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, the cracking spread will weaken, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. Overall, no significant price correction is expected in the second quarter [3][79][80] Summary According to the Directory 1. Asphalt: Cracking Spread Collapse, Significant Supply Contraction - Cost Increase and Profit Squeeze: The US intervention in Venezuelan crude oil sales has led to a significant reduction in the discount of Merey crude oil, pushing up the production cost of local refineries. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March caused international oil prices to soar, while the increase in asphalt prices was far less than that of crude oil, resulting in a rapid decline in the cracking spread and production profits. The problem of raw material shortage is expected to persist in the second quarter [11][14][15] - Substantial Supply Contraction and Limited Inventory Pressure: In mid - March, major refineries reduced production or stopped shipping due to concerns about raw material shortages and increased losses. The output in March and April decreased significantly year - on - year. Overseas supply also shrank significantly. Although the current asphalt inventory is high, the short - term supply shortage makes the near - month price easy to rise and difficult to fall [21] - Upcoming Demand and Price Support: The second quarter is the recovery period of asphalt demand. Although the demand growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, the early allocation of special bonds may support the improvement of demand. The key to the absolute price of asphalt lies in when the raw material shortage can be resolved, and the gradual return of the cracking spread is a more certain long - term trend [26][27] 2. Fuel Oil: Low - Sulfur Remains Relatively Strong, Focus on the Long - Term Return of Cracking Spread - Disruption of Persian Gulf Fuel Oil Supply and Strong Cracking Spread: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 cut off the only shipping route for Persian Gulf product exports, causing a supply gap of about 250,000 tons of high - sulfur fuel oil, accounting for about 20% of global demand. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from key refineries has also been affected [36][37][38] - Differentiated Trends of High - and Low - Sulfur, Low - Sulfur Gaining the Upper Hand: At the beginning of the geopolitical conflict, high - sulfur prices rose more strongly. However, as diesel prices soared, the relative relationship between high - and low - sulfur reversed, and the high - low sulfur spread began to widen. The term structure of fuel oil also showed different trends for high - and low - sulfur [45][46][48] - Differentiated Supply and Demand in Ports, Stable Inventory in Singapore: The fuel oil market fluctuations vary in different regions. The supply in the Middle East has been severely affected, while Singapore has shown more resilience due to the inflow of Russian goods. The demand has also been redistributed among ports. Although Singapore has buffered the supply impact, the low - sulfur blending pool has not been substantially alleviated [58][59][69] - The Strait of Hormuz is the Key, Don't Be Over - Optimistic about Resumed Navigation: The current situation has not been substantially alleviated. In the most optimistic scenario, supply relief in Singapore may occur in late April, and the price correction may occur at the end of the second quarter. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. In the pessimistic scenario, fuel oil prices will continue to soar [70][75][77] 3. Summary and Outlook - The marginal changes in the supply side are the key factors affecting the asphalt and fuel oil markets in the second quarter. The main price ranges of BU, FU, and LU in the second quarter are expected to be [3800,4800], [4000,5000], and [4500,6500] yuan/ton respectively, and the high - low sulfur spread in Singapore is expected to be in the range of [100,200] US dollars/ton. If the geopolitical situation does not change significantly, opportunities to buy the asphalt cracking spread and the high - low sulfur spread at low prices can be considered. If the seasonal rigid demand for asphalt recovers strongly, the opportunity for the BU - FU spread to widen can also be considered [79][80]