4月合约等待4月下半月运价指引，远月合约面临地缘扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April contract is waiting for the freight rate guidance in the second half of April, and the far - month contracts are facing geopolitical disturbances [1] - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but the high geopolitical risk may amplify its volatility. It is recommended that investors closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly [4] - The contracts for June, July, and August (relatively peak seasons) are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends, but the actual freight rates in the future months are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [5][6] - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts [7] - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from different shipping companies for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in different time periods are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, MSC + Premier Alliance, and Ocean Alliance [1] 3.2 Geopolitical Factors - Iran's parliament has passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which may reach up to $2 million per tanker. The new plan also includes restrictions on ships related to the US, Israel, or countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran. The US does not support this toll - collection [2] 3.3 Supply Analysis - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships exceeds 40 [2][3] - Dynamic Supply: The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in March, April, and May is provided, along with the capacity for specific weeks. There are also details about the number of TBNs and empty sailings in April and May [3] 3.4 Contract Analysis - EC2604: Maersk's freight rate in the second week of April has been lowered. The valuation of the contract is gradually clear, waiting for the guidance of Maersk's quotes in the second half of April. The PA alliance is facing greater cargo - booking pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the OA alliance will follow the price cut. The settlement price of the April contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th [4] - EC2606, EC2607, EC2608: These contracts are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends due to the low probability of the Suez Canal's full - scale reopening in the first half of 2026, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of demand from Asia to Europe [5][6] 3.5 Market Data - As of March 30, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 38,953.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 41,514.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on March 27th and 30th are also given [8]