申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices rose significantly on March 30 due to the expected escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran [3] - Methanol prices fell 1.21% at night, and the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: SC near - month rose 3.20% (23.4), SC next - month rose 3.06% (22.7), WTI near - month rose 7.88% (7.39), WTI next - month rose 5.40% (4.89), Brent near - month rose 2.66% (2.75), Brent next - month rose 2.08% (2.04) [2] - Trading Volume: SC near - month volume was 668, SC next - month was 102,605, WTI near - month was 330,086, WTI next - month was 167,945, Brent near - month was 192,501, Brent next - month was 499,081 [2] - Open Interest: SC near - month open interest was 2,266 (decreased by 163), SC next - month was 53,411 (increased by 973), WTI near - month was 279,852 (decreased by 7141), WTI next - month was 226,846 (decreased by 2341), Brent near - month was 283,899 (decreased by 113848), Brent next - month was 663,278 (decreased by 15009) [2] - Price Spreads: The current value of SC near - month - SC next - month was - 9.5, and other spreads also changed compared with the previous values [2] Spot Market - International Market: OPEC basket crude oil price, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta prices changed, with most showing a downward trend [2] - Domestic Market: Prices of domestic crude oil and refined oil products also changed, with some showing a downward trend. For example, the China gasoline wholesale price index decreased from 10,569 yuan/ton to 10,492 yuan/ton [2] Crude Oil - The Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US set an April 6 deadline for negotiations. If the negotiation fails, the US will resume attacks on Iranian energy facilities [3] Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.77%, a 3.12% increase from the previous period. The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 79.47%, a 1.36 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [4] - Coastal methanol inventory decreased by 4.22% to 122.7 tons as of March 26, compared with March 19. The estimated available methanol in the coastal area was about 54.1 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported methanol ships from March 27 to April 12 was 33.57 - 34 tons [4]