格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260331

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (pure benzene) is "oscillating bullish" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The complex and volatile geopolitical situation in the Middle East causes international crude oil to fluctuate sharply at high levels. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene led to an expectation of tight supply in the market. Most major downstream products are profitable. In the short - term, the pure benzene price is oscillating bullish under the influence of crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the night of Monday, the price of the main contract futures BZ2605 rose 57 yuan to 9101 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 8940 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 215), and the spot price in Shandong was 8550 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 374). In terms of positions, the long positions increased by 645 lots to 20,700 lots, and the short positions increased by 216 lots to 22,300 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In February, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons from the same month last year [2] - Inventory: On March 23, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 269,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous inventory of 288,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.60%; an increase of 129,000 tons from the inventory of 140,000 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 92.14%. From March 16th to March 22nd, the incompletely - counted arrivals were 16,000 tons, and the pick - ups were about 35,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 4 storage areas decreased, 1 storage area increased, and 2 storage areas remained stable [2] - Price adjustment: Sinopec Chemical Sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 500 yuan/ton. The companies in East China, North China, South China, and Central China along the Yangtze River all implemented 9000 yuan/ton, which was officially implemented on March 30 [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 69.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the operating rate of phenol was 86.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the operating rate of aniline was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69.5%, unchanged month - on - month [2] - International oil price: The NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.24 dollars/barrel to 102.88 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel to 112.78 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract rose 22.5 to 763 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.1 to 759.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East makes international crude oil fluctuate sharply at high levels. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene led to an expectation of tight supply in the market. Most major downstream products are profitable. In the short - term, the pure benzene price is oscillating bullish under the influence of crude oil prices [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]