格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20260331

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE US cotton futures closed higher, with the main contract breaking through the 70 - cent mark, and the market is concerned about the USDA planting intention for next - year's production forecast. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend, and the "Golden March" for downstream is coming to an end. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton remains in a relatively strong state [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 404,984, with an open interest of 1,087,785. The settlement prices are 15,405 for May, 15,540 for September, and 15,950 for January. ICE May contract settled at 70.19 cents, up 73 points; July at 72.42 cents, up 72 points; December at 74.61 cents, up 59 points. The trading volume is about 80,000 lots [2]. - Important Information: On March 27th, the purchase price of machine - picked new cotton in southern Xinjiang's Bazhou area is stable. US cotton - growing areas have different weather conditions. On the same day, the volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures decreased, prices fell, and the spot market was stable. Spinning mills' cotton yarn sales showed signs of weakness, and the spinning cost was rising [2]. - Market Logic: ICE US cotton futures rose, and the market focuses on the USDA's planting intention. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton is volatile, and the follow - up order increment needs to be observed [2]. - Trading Strategy: For the 05 contract, gradually roll over long positions below 15,300 yuan/ton to the 09 contract and control the position [2]. Group 2: Apples Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The apple market is in a state of partial - long and volatile. The market is cold, and the overall market is under pressure. The price may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the performance of the consumer side and changes in the delivery situation need to be focused on [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: Apple futures prices declined, and the main contract was shifted. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% [6]. - Important Information: The prices of apples in different regions are provided, such as the prices of different grades of apples in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu [6]. - Market Logic: There are few in -quiring and viewing customers in apple cold - storage areas. The market is cold, and the overall market is under pressure. High prices suppress consumption, and the arrival of seasonal fruits in April will suppress the upward space of futures prices. In April, there is a risk of "late spring cold" in apple - producing areas. The market is facing delivery disturbances in the short term [6]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - biased thinking for the 05 contract. Hold long positions below 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The log market is in a volatile state. In the short term, the price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 810 yuan/cubic meter. In the medium term, external factors such as real - estate policies, New Zealand's shipping rhythm, and geopolitics need to be concerned [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Market Review: Log futures prices declined, and the closing price of the main 2605 contract was 826.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.04% [8]. - Important Information: The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu are provided. As of January 23rd, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 3.11% to 2.49 million cubic meters, and the inventory of radiata pine decreased by 2.3% to 2.12 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China decreased by 0.09 compared with last week [8]. - Market Logic: China's log supply is highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand as the main source. The port inventory shows the characteristics of "de - stocking before the Spring Festival and inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival". The import cost has increased, which strongly supports the futures price. The demand for logs mainly depends on the real - estate construction, and the real - estate industry is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses log consumption. Although infrastructure projects are starting in March and furniture export demand is improving marginally, it is difficult to offset the weakness of the real - estate market, showing a "north - weak and south - strong" differentiation [8]. - Trading Strategy: The 05 contract of logs is volatile [8].