格林大华期货早盘提示：玉米-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval trading [2] - Pig: Short - term short [2] - Egg: Interval trading [5] 2. Core Views - For corn, in the short - to - medium term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may pressure spot prices to correct. In the long term, the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost remains, with a focus on policy guidance [2]. - For pigs, in the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists in March, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium term, supply pressure will ease from April - June. In the long term, supply pressure exists until August, and the expected high of far - month contracts has shifted down [5]. - For eggs, in the short term, egg prices stop rising and fall after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. In the medium term, supply pressure is postponed, limiting the upside of egg prices in the third quarter. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming may extend the price bottom cycle [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. As of the night - session close, the main 2605 contract fell 0.47% to 2,346 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast and North China decreased slightly. The average purchase price in the Northeast was 2,251 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last Friday, and in North China, it was 2,429 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Prices at north - south ports decreased slightly. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port, the transaction price was 2,490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 27, the total corn inventory at four northern ports was about 2.54 million tons, and the inventory at Guangdong Port was 550,000 tons. Feed enterprises mainly consumed inventory due to increased arrivals of imported grains [2]. - On March 30, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 lots to 58,377 lots [2]. - On March 30, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 140 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [2]. - The National Grain Trading Center will auction 800,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat on April 1, the same amount as the previous week [2]. Market Logic - Short - to - medium term: Rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may pressure spot prices to correct. Long - term: The pricing logic of substitution and planting cost remains, with a focus on policy guidance [2]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading idea in the medium term and expect a short - term correction. The 2605 contract has a valid resistance at 2,400. After breaking the first support at 2,350 - 2,370 on Monday, pay attention to the second support at 2,310 - 2,330. Consider appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions near the second support [2]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures fluctuated downward yesterday. The main 2605 contract rose 0.65% to 10,005 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - Pig prices were mainly stable. On March 30, the national average pig price was 9.41 yuan/kg, and it is expected to remain stable on the morning of March 31 [2]. - As of the end of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal level [2]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in pig slaughter until March this year. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, by 1%, 0.8%, and 1.2% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April. In January 2026, the number of new - born piglets increased 1% month - on - month [2]. - As of March 26, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 126.43 kg, an increase of 0.53 kg from the previous week [2]. - On March 30, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.28 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. - As of March 30, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 42 lots to 441 lots [5]. - On March 30, the daily market price of 7 - kg piglets was 234.72 yuan/head, the same as last Friday [5]. - As of March 26, the pork frozen - product storage rate was 21.24%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week [5]. Market Logic - Short - term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists in March, with weight pressure remaining. Under policy guidance, the expectation of weight reduction by farmers is increasing, and pig prices may remain low. Pay attention to the sentiment of second - fattening and frozen - product storage [5]. - Medium - term: The continuous month - on - month decline in new - born piglets in the fourth quarter of 2025 means supply pressure will ease from April - June. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [5]. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists until August. However, the decline in the number of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was less than expected, and the expected high of far - month contracts has shifted down [5]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. Near - month contracts continue to test support levels. As piglet prices continue to fall, the expectation of far - month contracts continues to shift down. For the 2605 contract, support is at 9,500 - 9,800, and resistance is at 10,000 - 10,300; for the 2607 contract, support is at 10,800 - 11,000, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open, with resistance at 11,500 - 11,600; for the 2609 contract, support is at 12,000 - 12,200, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open, with resistance at 12,700 - 12,900; for the 2611 contract, resistance is at 13,000 - 13,100, support is at 12,500, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open; for the 2701 contract, resistance is at 13,500 - 13,650, and support is at 12,800 - 13,000 [5]. Egg Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main 2605 contract fell 1.54% to 3,453 yuan/500KG [5]. Important Information - Egg prices mainly weakened. The average price in the main production areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.52 yuan/jin. On March 30, the price of pink eggs in Guantao, Hebei was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. - On March 30, the average inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.07 days from last Friday, and in the circulation link, it was 1.21 days, an increase of 0.07 days [5]. - On March 30, the average price of old hens was 5.12 yuan/jin, the same as before. As of March 26, the weekly culling age of old hens was 505 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the number of laying hens in February was about 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in March is 1.342 billion [5]. Market Logic - Short - term: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival inventory replenishment, inventory begins to rise, and egg prices stop rising and fall [5]. - Medium - term: The continuous increase in culling age and month - on - month increase in chick replenishment postpone egg supply pressure, which may limit the upside of egg prices in the third quarter [5]. - Long - term: The continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the upside driven by culling [5]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. For the 2605 contract, resistance is at 3,500 - 3,530, support is at 3,350 - 3,400. Pay attention to the culling rhythm and inventory level [5].