镍4月报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that although raw material costs support nickel prices, macro - factors still exert pressure on them. In the short - term, if the supply disruptions in April are realized and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips after stabilization, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [2][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface and Summary - Market Review: In March 2026, due to the Fed's hawkish monetary policy and the tense situation in the Middle East, the risk appetite of funds declined significantly, causing the non - ferrous metal sector to fall. After Trump's remarks eased the situation, the market risk appetite rebounded, but nickel prices still failed to return to the beginning - of - month high. From the beginning to the end of the month, the position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. Due to the lack of capital promotion, the nickel price rebound was weaker than expected despite the narrowing supply - demand gap and strong cost support [3][10]. - Market Outlook: The macro environment is still uncertain, and asset prices may fluctuate significantly. In the industrial aspect, terminal demand has entered the peak season, stainless steel production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for ternary batteries is stable. Supply disruptions are concentrated in Indonesian nickel mines and MHP. Currently, due to factors such as nickel mine quotas, export taxes, and sulfur transportation in the Middle East, the prices of nickel mines and MHP remain high. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, the sulfur supply shortage will gradually intensify, ultimately affecting the supply of MHP, electrowon nickel, and nickel sulfate. If the inventory reduction amplitude increases, it will support prices and raise the price center [4][11]. - Strategy Recommendation: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6][120]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In March 2026, the non - ferrous metal sector was affected by the Fed's policy and the Middle East situation, with nickel prices first falling and then rebounding but not reaching the initial high. The position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. On the supply side, Indonesian nickel mines were in short supply due to Ramadan and other factors, and the MHP price soared. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production increased, inventory decreased, and the demand for new - energy ternary materials was stable [10]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation - Global Visible Inventory: As of March 27, 2026, the global visible inventory was 373,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 6,402 tons compared with the end of last month, while SMM's six - region social inventory increased by 13,270 tons. The overall visible inventory increased by 6,368 tons compared with the end of last month, lower than expected, indicating that the surplus has shifted back to China and the overseas nickel plate supply is tight [16]. - Stainless Steel Raw Material Cost Support and March Resumption of Production: - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: Affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the supply of Philippine nickel mines in April is expected to decrease. The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in April decreased slightly month - on - month, but the overall trend is strong. The NPI price has risen, but ferronickel plants are still in a loss, and production has declined. Chromium - based raw material prices have also increased, pushing up the cost of stainless steel [30][41]. - Steel Mill Cost Inversion and Production Reduction Pressure: It is expected that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India will increase significantly in March. In the first two months of 2026, stainless steel imports and exports decreased year - on - year. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 14,000 tons compared with the previous month, with the 200 - series and 400 - series accumulating inventory and the 300 - series reducing inventory [46]. - Weak Peak Season Demand and Downstream Fear of High Prices: In March, the global macro - environment was turbulent. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and the tense Middle East situation have put pressure on the commodity market. The real - estate data showed a slight recovery in March, and the production schedule of white goods in April improved year - on - year [65][81]. - Ternary Demand Supports the High - Level Operation of Nickel Sulfate Price: - Stable Nickel Sulfate Price: From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of Indonesian MHP increased by 12% year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year. Due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the cost of hydrometallurgy has increased. Although there is currently no reduction in production due to sulfur shortage, the long - term impact still needs attention [82]. - Underwhelming New - Energy Vehicle Market Sales: - Domestic Market: From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 52% year - on - year, but the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased. The power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year in the first two months, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The new - energy heavy - truck market is booming, and the export of lithium - ion batteries has increased [96][99]. - Overseas Market: In January 2026, the global new - energy vehicle sales decreased year - on - year, with different trends in different regions. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly year - on - year. The European market has the best performance among the three major mainstream markets, and the new - energy vehicle market in some developing countries is growing rapidly [104][105]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Future Outlook: The duration of the Middle East conflict and macro - sentiment are the main uncertainties, which have a systematic impact on the non - ferrous metal sector and commodities. On the industrial side, the supply - side disruptions are expected to be strong, and the cost support is solid. If the supply disruptions are realized after April and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices [112]. - Strategy Recommendation: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [120].