碳酸锂4月报：库销比偏低，资金重返碳酸锂-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the lithium carbonate market was in a tight balance. Prices initially rose driven by funds but faced setbacks due to the Middle - East war and other factors. Later, prices rebounded as supply - side crises emerged and funds returned. In April, domestic production is expected to increase, imports may decrease, and demand will have some resilience, maintaining a tight balance with a low inventory - to - sales ratio, which supports prices. The focus has shifted to lithium ore supply, and the policy of Zimbabwe needs close attention. Macroscopically, due to the Middle - East situation, energy substitution logic has replaced the AI theme, and funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market [4][5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate prices were driven by funds to approach previous highs but failed due to the Middle - East war, weakening macro - sentiment, and looser supply - demand. On March 3rd, the non - ferrous sector declined, and lithium prices hit the daily limit down. Then prices continued to weaken until reaching 140,000 yuan/ton, where downstream purchases provided support. In the late month, supply - side issues led to a 10% increase in positions in 3 trading days and a rapid price rebound [4][9]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In March, the supply - demand was in a tight balance. Inventory data showed a slowdown in destocking and a shift to inventory accumulation in the last week. High prices stimulated lithium salt plants to resume production, and there were a large number of imports. Downstream buyers had about one - month's worth of raw material inventory at the end of the month. In April, domestic production will continue to increase, imports may decline, demand will have some growth, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance with a low inventory - to - sales ratio. The focus is on lithium ore supply, and the policy of Zimbabwe needs to be closely monitored. Macroscopically, due to the Middle - East situation, funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [5][9]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - The content is similar to the market review in the first part, including price fluctuations, supply - demand balance, and inventory changes in March, as well as the outlook for April [9]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Battery Orders are Full, and the Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains Low - New Energy Vehicle Sales and Battery Resilience: From January to February, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 52% year - on - year, but retail sales of new energy passenger cars decreased. In March, wholesale and retail sales of new energy vehicles still showed a year - on - year decline. However, power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year from January to February, mainly due to the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity. The increase in single - vehicle battery capacity is due to the higher proportion of mid - to - high - end models and the growth of new energy heavy - truck sales. Additionally, the export of lithium batteries also provides demand resilience [13][14]. - Energy Storage Orders are Full: In February 2026, the newly commissioned installed capacity of new - type energy storage projects increased significantly year - on - year. The output of energy storage cells from January to February increased by 93% year - on - year. Energy storage orders are full, and the production capacity of lithium batteries will be put into operation after April, with demand remaining stable and positive [26]. - Battery Production Scheduling: In March, the production scheduling of batteries, cells, cathodes, and electrolytes all increased. It is expected that in April, battery production scheduling will increase by 3 - 4% and cathode production by 1.1% [29][30][31][32][33]. 3.3.2 High Prices Stimulate Supply Increase, but Resource - Country Policies Add Disturbances - Concerns about Zimbabwe's Export Resumption: High prices stimulate new production, resumption, and capacity expansion. However, overseas mine production increases are mainly expected in the second half of the year. Zimbabwe stopped exporting raw ore and lithium concentrate on February 25th. If the export ban continues, it will have a significant impact on China's lithium ore supply. Although there are rumors of a possible export resumption in late March, the specific plan is unclear. The impact on lithium salt production will be relatively limited if exports resume in April, but supply concerns will intensify if the ban continues. Additionally, the increase in lithium ore imports from Nigeria can buffer the impact [44][45]. - Tight Lithium Ore Expectations and Decreasing Smelter Processing Fees: In January, there were many lithium concentrate arrivals at ports, and smelter inventories were sufficient. Recently, lithium ore has been relatively loose, processing fees have increased slightly, and smelter profits have recovered. SMM expects production scheduling to reach new highs in March and April. Currently, lithium salt plant inventories are low, and smelters are competing for lithium ore. Lithium ore inventory has slightly decreased, and processing fees have been adjusted downward. It is expected that supply elasticity will increase with capacity release, especially in the second half of the year. China's lithium carbonate imports increased by 65% year - on - year from January to February, and imports are expected to increase in March and return to normal after April [48][53][59]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Macro - aspect: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, with oil prices above $100. Energy substitution logic has replaced the AI theme. Funds are flowing back to the lithium carbonate market, but excessive optimism may lead to strong regulation and high volatility. It is recommended to operate with a light position [73]. - Industry - aspect: In April, supply is expected to increase, demand may be limited by vehicle sales but remains stable and positive. Supply - demand is slightly looser than in March, with a possible continuation of inventory accumulation but in a tight - balance state. The inventory - to - sales ratio of lithium carbonate is still low, supporting prices. The policy of Zimbabwe needs to be closely monitored [73]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy as the market is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [73]. - Options: Use a protective strategy [74].