RU月报：震荡运行关注低多机会-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to focus on low - buying opportunities. The ru2605 contract has limited downside space and is supported at the price of 16,200. In the long - and medium - term, the price center is expected to move up slightly under the background of strong supply - demand, but the overall increase is relatively limited [3][6]. - Different market participants are given corresponding trading strategies. For example, investors can sell call options for covered strategies and buy put options to hedge against downside risks; traders and end - customers can take different actions according to their inventory and procurement situations [3]. - Key data to be monitored include domestic rubber import data, domestic natural rubber inventory changes, tapping conditions and raw material prices in major domestic and foreign producing areas, macro - policy changes, and related rubber price performances [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 RU Industry Structure - Capacity Structure: The upstream raw materials of natural rubber come from rubber trees. The main producing areas are in Southeast Asia, Africa, and in China, Yunnan and Hainan. In 2002, the main supplying countries were Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cote d'Ivoire [10]. - Demand Structure: The downstream demand is mainly for tires, accounting for about 80%, and commercial vehicle demand has a relatively large proportion [10]. 3.2 Market Review - In March, the natural rubber price oscillated. Affected by geopolitical factors, Middle East orders decreased, but the strong synthetic rubber price led to substitution demand, resulting in a basic balance of demand [13]. 3.3 Price Changes - Spread: The main RU contracts are 1, 5, and 9 contracts, with the current main contract being RU2605. The RU5 - 9 inter - monthly structure has changed to contango [18]. - Basis: The delivery products of the RU futures contract are ISS3 and SCR WF. Since RSS3 has better quality than SCR WF, there is a premium. In actual delivery, it is basically SCR TF. The full - latex basis of SCR TF and the non - standard basis of mixed rubber are the focuses. The full - latex basis has been stable this month, currently around 05 - 250 to 300 yuan/ton [18]. - Foreign Futures Prices: The report shows the price trends of Singapore rubber TSR20 (FOB) and Tokyo rubber RSS3 [45][47]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The spread between full - latex and Vietnamese 3L is worthy of attention because they can be completely substituted in downstream use [50]. 3.4 Supply - Main Producing Areas Supply: The global natural rubber production is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. According to the ANRPG report in January 2026, global natural rubber production increased by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons in January, and consumption increased by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons. In 2026, global production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% to 15.602 million tons [54]. - China's Import Situation: In February 2026, China's natural rubber import volume was 461,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.29%. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 1.1065 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.36% [60]. - Specific Producing Areas: In February 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports to the world were 415,000 tons, and exports to China were 268,600 tons. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in February were 76,200 tons, and imports were 115,900 tons. Hainan has not started tapping, while in Yunnan, the weather is generally good, with fresh glue gradually increasing in output, and the glue purchase price is between 14.3 - 14.8 yuan/kg [74][76][79]. 3.5 Demand - Tire Industry Start - up: At the end of the month, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [87]. - Tire Inventory: The inventory situation of tire production enterprises is important for understanding the start - up rate and terminal demand [91]. - Supporting Market: The supporting market is mainly used for the tires of newly - produced passenger and commercial vehicles. The report shows relevant data on automobile production and sales [96]. - Replacement Market: The report shows data on highway freight turnover, China's logistics industry prosperity index, and highway logistics freight rate index, which are related to the replacement demand for tires [105]. - Export Market: The report shows the export volume data of semi - steel tires, full - steel tires, and new pneumatic rubber tires [117]. 3.6 Inventory - As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [120][121].