上海复旦（01385）：——上海复旦（1385.HK）2025年度业绩点评：撇销处理和存货跌价影响25年利润，智能电表和FPGA业务快速增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Fudan (1385.HK) [4] Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.982 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%, with Q4 revenue of 958 million RMB, up 5.7% year-on-year. The demand for products is differentiated, with pressure in some chip markets related to consumer and mid-to-low-end IoT, while the company actively explores downstream customers in automotive electronics, industrial control, and smart home appliances, with stable growth in high-reliability sectors [1] - The smart meter chip business and FPGA revenue grew significantly, with increases of 30.7% and 25.3% respectively, becoming the core drivers of performance. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 59.42% to 232 million RMB due to increased R&D expenses from capitalized project write-offs and increased inventory impairment losses [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.58 RMB per share (tax included), totaling 48 million RMB [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 3.982 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit is expected to be 232 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 59.4% [3][7] - The gross margin for 2025 is 56.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The smart meter chip business generated 518 million RMB in revenue, up 30.7% year-on-year, with stable sales growth despite a declining tender environment [1] - FPGA and other products achieved revenue of 1.42 billion RMB, a growth of 25.3%, with strong sales performance and successful product iterations [1] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to 671 million RMB and 778 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 31.2% and 34.7% compared to previous estimates. The 2028 net profit is projected at 900 million RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15% [2][3]