燃料油4月报：高低硫价差关注低硫减产及高硫需求启动节奏-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, affected by the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the cracking spreads and premiums of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils reached historical highs and then slightly declined. The high - sulfur market was weaker than the low - sulfur market in March. High - sulfur fuel oil is gradually entering the peak - season fundamental logic, while the near - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains tight [4][5]. - In the future, attention should be paid to the processing volume and export logistics of refineries in the near term, the demand - driving rhythm of high - sulfur fuel oil under the tight natural gas situation, and the negative feedback from terminal bunkering for low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - The recommended trading strategies include a strong high - level oscillation for the unilateral market, paying attention to the positive spread opportunities of FU7 - 9 and LU6 - 7, and the opportunity to narrow the LUFU spread while focusing on the low - sulfur production reduction rhythm and the start of high - sulfur peak - season demand [7][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction and Market Review - In March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the cracking spreads and premiums of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils reached historical highs. The high - sulfur cracking spread reached about $27 per barrel in mid - March, and the Singapore spot basis reached about $72 per ton. The low - sulfur cracking spread and Singapore spot premium also reached historical highs in mid - to late March. The high - sulfur market was weaker, with supply tension alleviated by Russian exempted oil, and high prices suppressing refinery feed demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was tight both at home and abroad. In late March, there was some negative feedback from downstream demand, and the low - sulfur premium began to decline but remained at a historically high level [4][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis of Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Russia - In March, Russian refineries that were previously attacked gradually recovered, and the crude oil processing volume increased. The export of Russian oil products increased due to the exemption order, but the Baltic ports were attacked again at the end of March. The average crude oil processing rate from March 5th to 11th was 5.32 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 barrels per day. As of March 16th, the total export was about 1.95 million tons, with a daily average of 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons (+17%) and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 tons (+28%) [15][16][17]. 3.2.2 Mexico - As of March 16th, the total high - sulfur export was about 280,000 tons, with a daily average of 174,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. In the week of March 6th, the high - sulfur export surged to about 210,000 tons. However, the total supply is limited due to the reduced production after the secondary device commissioning of Tula and Olmeca refineries [20]. 3.2.3 Middle East - Due to the intensification of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and some refineries in the Middle East reduced production or shut down completely. As of March 16th, the total high - sulfur export was about 1.02 million tons, with a daily average of 64,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61%. The low - sulfur fuel oil export from Al - Zour refinery was stable but with a stagnant export expectation [23]. 3.2.4 Nigeria - After the secondary device of Dangote refinery resumed stable operation in mid - February, the low - sulfur production and export decreased month - on - month. In March, there was no low - sulfur fuel oil export, and the export to the Pan - Singapore area in February decreased by 70,000 tons to 80,000 tons [28]. 3.2.5 South Sudan - The export of Dar Blend crude oil gradually recovered, with a total loading of 1.8 million barrels in March, returning to the normal level of last year. India began to import and divert Dar crude oil [29]. 3.2.6 Singapore - As of the week of March 11th, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore reached 24.16 million barrels (about 3.8 million tons), a new high in four weeks. The import and export of fuel oil in land - based storage tanks increased. There are concerns about future raw material supply, and alternative supply sources are limited [31]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The situation of the Middle East conflict is volatile, increasing the risk of oil price fluctuations. The recent attacks on major Baltic ports in Russia may affect the near - term oil product loading and export. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore remains at a high level. As the second quarter approaches, attention should be paid to the start of power - generation stockpiling and import demand in South Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The bunkering demand in Singapore may increase. The near - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [41]. - Strategy recommendations: a strong high - level oscillation for the unilateral market; pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of FU7 - 9 and LU6 - 7; pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the LUFU spread [41].