政策预期提振多晶硅价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon prices rose notably today due to policy expectations. Consecutive signals from the NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation have reinforced policy expectations around curbing excessive competition, supporting the rebound in polysilicon prices [4][5] - In the short term, polysilicon prices are likely to fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, attention should focus on policy direction and the progress of supply - side clearing. Over the medium to long term, polysilicon prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, while investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10] Summary According to Relevant Contents Event Review - On March 14, the NDRC stated in the 2026 Economic and Social Development Plan draft that it would curb disorderly competition in sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and promote price stabilization and recovery in products including polysilicon, wafers, and lithium carbonate. On March 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law to curb "involution - style" competition in key industries such as photovoltaics [4][5] Market Outlook Supply - Most polysilicon producers remain in a state of production cuts under high inventory pressure. Although some producers show willingness to resume output, overall polysilicon production is expected to stay at a low level in April [7][9] Demand - Affected by weak end - user demand and seasonal softness at the beginning of the year, wafer production and operating rates declined in January - February. In March, wafer output was temporarily supported by a "rush to export" window, but as this window closes, production schedules in April are unlikely to see a meaningful increase. Post - holiday domestic demand recovery remains limited, and downstream demand overall remains subdued [7][9] Inventory - Polysilicon stockpiles are still elevated. While upstream producers have attempted to ease supply pressure through production cuts and controls, inventory accumulation has not yet been effectively digested, and further time is needed for destocking and supply - side clearing [7][9] Price and Strategy - Polysilicon prices have fallen significantly in the earlier stage and are now at a relatively low valuation level. In the short term, prices will fluctuate around the cost range. In the medium term, the supply - demand balance may improve marginally if production cuts continue. Over the medium to long term, prices are expected to remain in a wide trading range. Downstream players may consider moderate restocking on price dips, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [8][10]