citic securities·2026-03-31 07:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious tone regarding the investment outlook for the company, First Pacific (FP), with a projected recurring profit growth of 9% year-on-year to $365 million for the second half of 2025, although this is lower than expected due to impacts from FPM Power and headquarters expenses [5][6]. Core Insights - First Pacific's growth in the second half of 2025 is primarily driven by contributions from Metro Pacific, Indofood, and Philex, while losses from FP Natural Resources have narrowed [5][6]. - The company announced a regular dividend of 1.79 cents per share (up 3% year-on-year) and a special dividend of 0.15 cents per share, leading to an estimated total dividend of 3.61 cents per share for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [6]. - The headquarters' interest coverage ratio remains healthy at 4.5 times, indicating strong financial stability [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Recurring profit for the second half of 2025 is expected to reach $365 million, a 9% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - Headquarters expenses exceeded expectations by $3 million, impacting overall profit growth [6]. - Total dividends for fiscal year 2025 are projected to grow by 10% to 3.61 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 20.4% [6]. Business Contributions - Indofood's profit contribution is expected to grow by 5% to $174 million in the second half of 2025 [6]. - Metro Pacific's core profit contribution is projected to increase by 22% to $120 million, driven by strong performance in power, water, and healthcare sectors [6]. - Philex's profit contribution is anticipated to surge by 393% to $7 million [6]. Debt and Financial Health - As of the end of 2025, net debt at headquarters is expected to slightly increase to $1.3 billion, primarily due to additional investments in FPM Power and subscriptions to Maynilad IPO shares [6]. - The interest coverage ratio is projected to remain stable at 4.5 times, indicating robust financial health [6].