铜产业2026年度二季度展望：滞胀风险与供应扰动交织，铜价或先抑后扬

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2026, copper prices fluctuated in three stages, showing a "first rise then fall" pattern, and the capital trading driver switched from "interest rate cut" to "stagflation." In Q2, the copper market will enter a critical stage of game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals. The copper price will generally present a pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation," and the core logic of price operation will gradually shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven" [1]. - Assuming that the Middle East conflict does not escalate further, the Fed maintains high interest rates, and China's power grid investment and the US data center construction progress steadily, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June. The estimated price range is 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - Core View: Q1 2026 copper prices were affected by multiple factors, showing a "first rise then fall" three - stage fluctuation. Q2 will be a critical stage of game, with the copper price pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation" and the logic shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven" [1]. - Price Estimation: Assuming certain conditions, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June. The estimated price range is 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. - Strategy Outlook: Copper processing enterprises can build long - hedging positions in batches in the range of 91,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. When the price is in different ranges, different hedging ratios can be configured. In addition, options strategies suitable for shock markets can be considered, and call options can be sold to reduce inventory costs when the market turns weak in advance [2]. Chapter 2: Market Review - Q1 2026 Copper Price Fluctuation: It showed a "first rise then fall, three - stage fluctuation" feature. The first stage was the early - year rush (early January - mid - January); the second stage was the high - level shock and policy game (mid - January - mid - February); the third stage was the geopolitical conflict and macro - shift (late February - mid - March) [6][7]. - Influencing Factors: The core influencing factor in Q1 2026 was the macro - environment, followed by the industry, and finally market sentiment and funds [7]. Chapter 3: Core Points of Concern 3.1 Valuation: The Actual Impact of Sulfur Supply Disruption on Copper Mines - Cost Impact: About 70% - 90% of the variable cost of copper mines is related to energy prices. When the oil price rises by more than 50%, the cash cost of copper mining enterprises will rise by more than 6%. Some mining enterprises have raised their 2026 C1 cash costs [14]. - Output Impact: The Middle East conflict may lead to the interruption of sulfur exports, the rise of sulfuric acid prices, and the increase of wet - process copper smelting costs, resulting in limited production in African copper mines. If the Middle East conflict lasts for more than 3 months, the supply - side shock will become the core driving force for the rise of copper prices [14]. 3.2 Driver: Macro - Interest Rate Cut & Industrial Cycle Resonance 3.2.1 Macro - Driver: Extreme Strengthening of Financial Attributes - Abnormal Asset Linkage: In Q1, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupted the market rhythm. There were several abnormalities in asset linkage, such as the weakening of the negative correlation between gold and real interest rates, the weak follow - up of industrial metals, and the divergence between the CRB metal index and the S&P 500 [17]. - Interest Rate Expectation: The probability of interest rate hike is small, and the expectation of interest rate cut still exists. It is recommended to closely track the repair progress of the copper - gold ratio as a key signal to judge whether the copper price can shift from "liquidity - driven" to "demand - driven" [20][23]. 3.2.2 Industrial Driver: Tight Supply Constraint and Accelerated Structural Transformation of Global Copper Supply and Demand in Q2 2026 - Supply - Side: - Global Mine Output: In 2026, the absolute output of mines increases, but the relative output decreases. The global mine - end production increase is limited, and the copper resource trade flow is changing. The shortage of raw materials drags down the smelting capacity [23][25][38]. - Specific Mine Situations: In January 2026, the main contributors to the increase in global copper mine production were Peru, Zambia/Democratic Republic of the Congo, and China, while the main drag regions were Chile and Indonesia. Some mining enterprises' production is affected by various factors such as labor disputes and slow resumption of production [27]. - Trade Flow Changes: In Q1 2026, the global copper mine trade was transforming from "benchmark pricing" to "bilateral bargaining." China was re - constructing the supply chain security boundary through long - term contracts and overseas investment. The import sources of copper in China and the US also changed [38][40][47]. - Smelting Capacity: In January 2026, the global refined copper capacity utilization rate decreased. The internal structure of refined copper production was differentiated, with the production of recycled copper increasing significantly. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were the main contributors to the growth of global refined copper production [51]. - Demand - Side: - Global Demand: In January 2026, the global refined copper demand increased year - on - year, and the supply surplus narrowed. Energy - transition - related demand offset the decline in traditional industries, but there was obvious regional differentiation [57]. - China: In Q1 2026, the real estate and home appliance industries in China dragged down copper consumption, while power grid investment, new energy vehicles, and renewable energy were the main contributors. However, the growth rate of copper consumption in new energy vehicles decreased, and power grid investment and renewable energy will support future copper consumption [59]. - US: In Q1 2026, the consumption structure of copper in the US market changed, with the proportion of the real estate/construction industry decreasing, and the proportions of the power/grid, renewable energy, and data center construction industries increasing. The new installed power generation capacity in 2026 far exceeded expectations, and the copper consumption will increase significantly [64]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report adjusted the global (including China) mine output, smelting capacity, import volume, inventory, and consumption volume, and provided the supply - demand balance sheet for reference [75]. Chapter 4: Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: In Q2, the copper market will enter a critical stage of game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals. The copper price will show a pattern of "shock - biased upward and structural differentiation," and the price logic will shift from "liquidity - driven" to "supply - demand driven." Assuming certain conditions, the copper price is expected to bottom out in April and rebound from May to June, with the estimated price range of 93,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 11,000 - 13,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [78][79]. - Strategy: Copper processing enterprises can build long - hedging positions in batches in the range of 91,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies suitable for shock markets can be considered, and call options can be sold to reduce inventory costs when the market turns weak in advance [80][81].