03月中国PMI观察：供需改善、预期谨慎

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond expectations, indicating an economic recovery, but the recovery strength is average and the expectations are cautious. Without considering external uncertainties, the prices of domestically - priced commodities are expected to rise. The manufacturing PMI in April 2026 is likely to decline, which is a crucial observation window [4][5][6]. - In March 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI rose, but multiple sub - items are at historically low levels, and the non - manufacturing industry is still in the bottom - building process. The construction industry is still in a downward trend, but the sales price sub - item has bottomed out [29][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Review of China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Tables - Manufacturing PMI: In March 2026, all sub - items of the manufacturing PMI increased compared to February. The significant increases include the purchase price of main raw materials (up 9 to 63.9), ex - factory price (up 4.8 to 55.4), import (up 4.2 to 49.8), new export orders (up 4.1 to 49.1), and new orders (up 3 to 51.6) [3][4]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In March 2026, the business activity of non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up 0.6 from the previous month. The sub - items with relatively large increases were new export orders, input prices, sales prices, and delivery time. The sub - items with relatively large decreases were domestic demand, inventory, business activity expectations, and employees [3][29]. Part 2: March Manufacturing PMI Reflects Economic Service Beyond Expectations - Manufacturing PMI reached 50.4 in March 2026, up 1.4 from the previous month, higher than the market expectation of 50.1, and above the 50 boom - bust line again after two months. All sub - items increased, indicating an economic recovery. However, some key sub - items are still below 50, and some sub - items are at the second - lowest or lowest levels in the same period since 2018. The economic recovery is influenced by factors such as the arrival of the demand peak season, economic improvement, and price increases due to the Middle East conflict. The recovery strength is average, and expectations are cautious. The prices of domestically - priced commodities are expected to rise. In April 2026, the manufacturing PMI is likely to decline, which is a crucial observation window [4][5][6]. Part 3: Multiple Sub - items of March Non - manufacturing PMI are at Historically Low Levels - In March 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.1, up 0.6 from the previous month and higher than the expected 49.9, returning above 50 again after two months. The sub - items of non - manufacturing PMI showed mixed trends. The new orders and domestic demand sub - items decreased against the season, indicating that the non - manufacturing industry is still in the bottom - building process. Some sub - items are at the lowest or second - lowest levels in the same period over the years. The construction industry PMI shows a downward trend, but the sales price sub - item has bottomed out, suggesting that the housing price may be stabilizing, but the sustainability needs to be observed [29][32].