瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA60 and the upper limit of 14,500 yuan. The upstream raw material supply is expected to shrink, the production of stainless steel mills may face pressure, the downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, but the demand in the traditional "Golden March" peak season is slightly insufficient, and the long - position sentiment has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27 lots, an increase of 3,429 lots; the main contract position is 97,783 lots, a decrease of 8,530 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 45,736 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of stainless steel is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, a decrease of 5,231.79 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 831,700 tons, a decrease of 78,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,100 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.3194 million tons, a decrease of 538,700 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 626,500 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area increased by 5,083.9 square meters, a decrease of 53,686.06 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the duty - free shopping 2.0 version, promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive after - market and leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping. The import of automobiles from January to February 2026 increased by 25% year - on - year, but the import in February decreased by 12% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month. The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special consumption promotion campaign. The Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged but may act if inflation expectations change. The supply of nickel ore is expected to shrink due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia [2]