白糖产业日报-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian sugar has not been crushed, and the international market news is in a vacuum period. The raw sugar price lacks more upward drivers and is expected to remain volatile [2] - In the domestic market, the sugar beet crushing in the north has ended, and the production is basically in line with expectations. The cane sugar production exceeds expectations, and the domestic production is expected to be around 12 million tons. The current sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and there is certain pressure on the price [2] - The price of raw sugar in the external market has fallen, and the domestic sugar price mainly follows the decline [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the main contract position is 269,186 lots, down 34,897 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,862, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is -120,878 lots, up 1,845 lots [2] - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,364 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,470 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2297 million tons, up 212,200 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,055 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,109 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -121 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -51 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 240,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 520,000 tons, up 240,000 tons [2] - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 1.9923 million tons, up 441,700 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 697,500 tons, up 165,500 tons [2] - The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 5.6513 million tons, up 1.6223 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 1.4934 million tons, up 509,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 3.5904 million tons, up 2.2874 million tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks is 13.421 million tons, up 2.964 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 13.42%, down 1.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 13.41%, down 1.19 percentage points [2] - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 10.87%, up 0.12 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of sugar is 9.24%, down 0.81 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of March 24, 2026, the non-commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 95,804 lots, a decrease of 111,951 lots from the previous week. The long position was 205,205 lots, an increase of 12,896 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 301,009 lots, a decrease of 99,055 lots from the previous week [2] - The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.21 cents or 1.33%, at 15.55 cents per pound [2]