瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract weakened with a reduction in positions. The Fed Chair's statement eased market concerns about interest rate hikes, and traders considered the possibility of rate cuts this year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction. However, due to Trump's statement, oil prices fell, leading to a general decline in commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 808.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 353,624 hands, down 17,797 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 784 hands, up 6,329 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,700.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.45 US dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 742 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 20 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 108.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.16, down 0.04. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25.00 days, up 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.62%, down 0.67%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.21 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.98 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, up 1.10%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.67%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 19.32%, down 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.74%, down 2.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. Australian shipments were 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. Brazilian shipments were 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]