瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump signaled a缓和 of the US - Iran situation, leading to a short - term pull - up and then a sharp decline in precious metals. Powell said the Fed would "ignore" the short - term energy shock, reducing bets on interest rate hikes this year. Fed's Milan released dovish signals, and the weakening of US short - term Treasury yields supported gold and silver prices. Geopolitical factors restricted the rebound of precious metals. In the future, if the geopolitical conflict persists and supports high oil prices, the precious metals' rebound space may be suppressed. However, if the US economic slowdown is verified and the upcoming non - farm data is weak while CPI inflation rises significantly, gold prices may benefit from stagflation risks. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar credit still exist, so the strategy is to be short - term cautious and long - term bullish [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 5.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18126 yuan/kilogram, up 419 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 520 hands to 180,433 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 8724 hands to 17,199 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 58160 to 335,355, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 178429 to 881,875. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 106644 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 5760 to 368,667 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1018.90 yuan, up 10.15 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 18,308 yuan, up 1003 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.20 yuan/gram, up 4.93 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 182 yuan/gram, up 584 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.43 tons to 1046.13 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 121.10 tons to 15,288.36 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 8458 to 168327, and those of silver increased by 2792 to 24,673. The quarterly total supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the annual total supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the annual total demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.32; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.04, down 0.09. The VIX volatility index was 30.61, down 0.44; the CBOE gold volatility index was 42.71, down 2.80. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.40, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 64.02, down 2.42 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran, and Iran agreed to most of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". Powell said the Fed would maintain the interest rate and "ignore" the short - term energy shock. Williams thought the current interest rate was in a favorable position, while Milan called for a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year. The Bank of Japan's governor said that if the interest rate hike was delayed, long - term interest rates might rise rapidly, and short - term consumer prices might be more volatile [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]