瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has kept international oil prices oscillating at high levels, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn market prices. The increase in import prices is also beneficial to the domestic market. In the domestic market, as the temperature rises in the Northeast production area and farmers need to sell grain for cash for spring plowing, the grain - selling progress has accelerated. The procurement by the China National Grains and Oils Reserves Administration will end in April, and recent procurement has been concluded at a discounted price. The proportion of substitutes such as wheat has increased, and feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. As a result, the spot price has shown a slight decline. There are also rumors that a targeted paddy auction may be launched in April or late April, which, if implemented, will impact corn's feed demand to some extent. Recently, corn futures prices have oscillated and declined at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2] Corn Starch - Recently, the supply of raw - material corn has increased compared to the previous period, and the enthusiasm of corn starch enterprises to start production has risen. The industry's operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. The industry's inventory pressure has also slightly rebounded. However, supported by high raw - material corn prices, the starch spot market performs well. After a previous rise, the starch market has declined from a high level recently [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 29 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 4 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1023011 lots, down 29630 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 235927 lots, down 9716 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 84497 lots, up 30089 lots; for corn starch, it is - 13790 lots, up 814 lots. The registered warehouse receipt volume for yellow corn is 0 lots, down 58377 lots; for corn starch, it is 0 lots, down 4510 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] Outer - market (CBOT) - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 455.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1796424 contracts, up 22925 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn (weekly) is 375360 contracts, up 63018 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, down 1.87 yuan. The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang, it is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of imported corn is 2124.62 yuan/ton, down 15.24 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 62 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 163 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The basis of the corn main contract is 97.8 yuan/ton, down 6.87 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 492 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2585.5 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 819 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; the sown area is 36.93 million hectares, unchanged. In Brazil, the predicted annual output is 131 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged. In Argentina, the predicted annual output is 53 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged. In China, the predicted annual output is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; the sown area is 44.96 million hectares, unchanged. In Ukraine, the predicted annual output is 29 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 38.1 tons, down 6.6 tons; in northern ports, it is 252 tons, up 5 tons. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 406.3 tons, up 29.4 tons. Starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 121.7 tons, up 1.4 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons. The monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 31.57 days, up 1.3 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.97 tons, up 4.83 tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 61.89%, up 3.13 percentage points. The starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 60.98%, up 2.18 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; in Hebei, it is 79 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Jilin, it is 34 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.08%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] Industry News - AgRural lowered its forecast for Brazil's total corn output in the 2025/26 season by 500,000 tons, from 1.362 billion tons forecast in February to 1.357 billion tons. As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,789,524 tons, compared with 1,702,651 tons last week and 1,718,304 tons in the same period last year [2]