瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of urea in China has slightly decreased recently, and there is a possibility of a slight increase in output considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand for green - turning fertilizers has basically ended, while industrial demand from sectors such as compound fertilizers, boards, and melamine remains stable. Policy measures for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled market trading sentiment. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and industrial demand is rising. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1850 - 1900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1874 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's position is 173908 lots, a decrease of 14640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 34629, an increase of 1026. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8707, with no change [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1900, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with no change in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, and an increase of 10 yuan/ton in Jiangsu. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 622.5 and 752.5 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.9 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84%; the daily output is 210800 tons, a decrease of 6300 tons. The urea export volume is 11 million tons, a decrease of 20%; the monthly output is 6035310 tons, a decrease of 254300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 51.24%, an increase of 1.27%; the operating rate of melamine is 65.98%, an increase of 6.67%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 2719 yuan/ton, an increase of 1707 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 444.13 million tons, a decrease of 73.86 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 36300 tons, an increase of 3700 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a 13.40% decrease. As of March 26, the port inventory was 16.9 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons, a 1.20% increase. The output of urea production enterprises was 147.56 million tons, a decrease of 4.38 million tons from the previous period, a 2.88% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.35%, a decrease of 3.84% [2]