中枢抬升、压力犹存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Volatility [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the geopolitical conflict on PVC supply has a long - tail effect. In the short term, the domestic supply reduction may be more obvious in April, and in the long term, it is expected to accelerate the improvement of the domestic PVC supply - demand pattern and provide medium - and long - term support for prices. However, the overall oversupply pattern of PVC has not changed, and high inventory pressure will still limit the upside space. The second - quarter disk price will show a wide - range shock pattern of "bottom rising, top limited", and the operating range is [5000, 5800] yuan/ton [3][65] 3. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 PVC Market Review - From January to early February, the market rebounded due to improved expectations, with new capacity entering a vacuum period and policy - induced capacity optimization logic [12] - From early February to early March, the market returned to reality after expectation correction, with the weakening of export - related factors and high inventory [12] - From early March to late March, the market soared due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with cost increase, supply reduction, and export increase expectations [13] - From late March to the end of March, the market declined as the expected supply reduction was slow to materialize and demand was weak [13] Supply: Geopolitical - induced raw material shortage may ease Q2 PVC supply pressure - In 2026, PVC capacity expansion slowed down, with only 300,000 tons/year of new capacity. But the output contribution of 2.2 million tons/year of new capacity in 2025 still affected Q1 2026, with a 5.2% year - on - year increase in output from January to February [17][18] - After the Middle - East conflict in March, domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises reduced production, while calcium - carbide - based enterprises increased production, resulting in limited overall supply reduction. In Q2, ethylene - based supply reduction is expected to be more obvious, and calcium - carbide - based production increase space is limited [23][33] Domestic Demand: Q2 domestic demand recovers seasonally but is still dragged down by the weak real - estate market - In 2026, the real - estate market remained sluggish, suppressing PVC domestic demand. In Q1, PVC product exports showed a structural recovery, with significant growth in exports of hard pipes, profiles, etc. [38][42] Exports: Geopolitical conflict may partially offset the negative impact of export tax - rebate cancellation - From January to February 2026, PVC exports increased by 20.1% year - on - year, and the proportion in total output rose to 17.6%. The export tax - rebate will be cancelled from April 1, but the geopolitical conflict may offset the negative impact to some extent [51][55][58] Summary and Outlook - The geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the market is volatile. The PVC market's trading logic has shifted from expectation to reality. In the short term, supply reduction may be more obvious in April; in the long term, it is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. However, the oversupply pattern remains, and the price will show a wide - range shock pattern with an operating range of [5000, 5800] yuan/ton [65]