螺纹日报：震荡偏弱-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The short - term view of the steel price is mainly oscillating on the strong side, with the supply contraction and inventory reduction providing support for a rebound, but the weak demand restricting the upward height. In the medium - term, the demand recovery situation needs to be closely monitored. If the demand continues to pick up, the steel price is expected to start a trend - based rebound; if the demand remains weak, the steel price will maintain an oscillating pattern [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes Review - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 75,393 lots on Tuesday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 477,403 lots. In terms of the moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average of 3128, and the daily line was above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3101 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115, showing short - term weakness and medium - term strength [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 119 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.9787 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 54,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 295,600 tons. The output has been continuously declining, and the steel mills are actively reducing production due to profit pressure and high inventory [3] - Demand side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.2537 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 172,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 199,600 tons. The weekly demand has recovered, but it is still weak year - on - year, and the demand repair strength is insufficient [3] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 6.4275 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 104,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 2.1916 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 170,400 tons; the total inventory was 8.6191 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 275,000 tons. Although the inventory has been decreasing, it is still about 5% higher year - on - year, and the inventory pressure still exists [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level, and geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, which enhanced the market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support and provided phased support to the sentiment [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The steel mills are actively reducing production, the supply side has significantly shrunk, the inventory has been continuously reduced, the inventory - to - sales ratio has improved, and the steel price has bottom support [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand is weak year - on - year, the recovery is less than expected, the total inventory is still increasing year - on - year, and the confidence of traders is insufficient, which restricts the upward height of the steel price [5]