苯乙烯热点：下游负反馈失灵

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, the shortage of raw materials and high - price raw materials have been realized in actual production. Pure benzene is facing a situation of double - decline in supply and demand, changing from a previously loose supply to a balanced or even tight state, with expected valuation repair. Styrene has a relatively strong fundamental situation. Before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, the supply side remains the main trading contradiction, and in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is difficult to be a sign of market change. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate strongly [3][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Description - In the past, when the price of styrene was high and demand was weak, the reduction, production halt and raw material selling of downstream factories might be a sign of market change. Currently, although downstream reduction and raw material selling have occurred, the negative feedback seems to have failed, and styrene prices are still oscillating at a high level [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Benzene Supply - In the second quarter, it is the peak maintenance period for petroleum benzene. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, some refineries at home and abroad have reduced the load of cracking units by 10% - 40%, resulting in an unexpected reduction in petroleum benzene supply. If the load reduction continues until the end of April, the unexpected reduction in domestic supply will exceed 80,000 tons, and the monthly maintenance loss has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year [6] - Although there is a decline in the supply of oil - based pure benzene, the supply of coal - based hydrogenated benzene has some room for growth. The current operating rate of hydrogenated benzene is around 67%, with about 8% room for improvement, but the potential increase cannot fully offset the reduction in petroleum benzene [9] - The obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a decline in future pure benzene imports. Asian refineries' production cuts will reduce exports to China. Although some pure benzene from India can be redirected to China, the import volume in March - April is still expected to be reduced to 37 - 380,000 tons per month [11] 3.2.2 Styrene Supply - In the second quarter, styrene maintenance is still concentrated, and the unexpected production reduction due to raw material supply shortage is yet to develop. Currently, styrene in the ethylene chain has the best profit performance. The impact on styrene is relatively small, but if the raw material shortage persists, styrene production will also be affected [15] 3.2.3 Demand Side - For pure benzene, the main demand support is styrene, which continues to be in a high - maintenance state. Non - styrene downstream industries are already operating at a high level, and it is difficult to further increase the operating rate. Overall, the rigid demand for pure benzene is supported but difficult to increase [20] - For styrene, among the downstream 3S products, EPS is operating relatively healthily, while PS and ABS have limited demand support and have shown negative feedback of production reduction. The export demand is strong. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the global logistics of styrene has changed. It is expected that the export volume in April will probably exceed 100,000 tons [20] 3.3 Outlook for the Future Market - The situation of pure benzene and styrene is similar to the previous analysis. They are facing supply contraction and demand with limited growth. Before the Strait of Hormuz problem is solved, the supply side is the main trading contradiction, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly [24]