南华期货2026黄金、白银二季度展望：地缘裂变叠加政策转向，震荡调整孕育长期机遇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the rhythm of the precious metals market. Geopolitical event - driven impacts may gradually weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy corrections and fundamentals [1][149]. - The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations in Q2 and gradually recover previous losses. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. However, more data such as the recovery of Fed rate - cut expectations or the acceleration of central bank gold purchases are needed to support the upward drive, and this time window may appear in the second half of Q2 or Q3 [2][150]. - Gold has strong support at $4100 - 4400 per ounce in Q2, with resistance at $5000; silver has strong support at $60 - 65 per ounce, with resistance at $100 [2][150]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review 3.1.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, precious metal prices fluctuated sharply, showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The SHFE Shanghai Gold Index reached a peak of 1260.15 yuan/gram on January 29, and as of March 20, it closed at 1042.5 yuan/gram, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 253.53 yuan/gram and a quarterly increase of 6.4%. The SHFE Shanghai Silver Index reached a peak of 31573 yuan/kg on January 30, and as of March 20, it closed at 17626 yuan/kg, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 15455 yuan/kg and a quarterly increase of 3.2% [6][7]. - The London gold - to - silver ratio widened slightly from around 60 at the end of last year to 63. In January, the domestic silver price had a significant premium over the London price, and the spot price had a significant premium over the futures price, but this situation reversed in February [7]. 3.1.2 Influence Factor Analysis - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market showed an extremely volatile pattern, with the core drivers centered around geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy expectations. In early Q1, multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy expectations, and supply - demand imbalances drove the rise of precious metal prices. In late January, the nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman and the tightening of market liquidity led to a peak - to - trough decline in prices. In February, geopolitical conflicts, policy expectation differentiation, and tariff policy uncertainties drove the prices to rise in oscillations. In March, the market was extremely volatile, first falling sharply due to negative factors and then rebounding rapidly [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Rise - Fall Period Analysis - Since 2026, the rise of precious metal prices has mainly concentrated in the early Asian trading session, while the European and American trading sessions have shown a downward trend. The inflow and outflow of funds from US and Chinese gold ETFs are closely related to price trends. The decline in precious metal prices is mainly driven by the European and American markets, and the key to the price recovery lies in the return of investment demand in the European and American markets and the shift of monetary policy expectations from rate hikes to rate cuts [29][30]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Precious Metal Prices 3.2.1 Core Events in the Middle East Geopolitical Situation in Q1 - In Q1, the Middle East geopolitical situation gradually escalated and was in a state of repeated tug - of - war. Key events included Iran's enhanced control of the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation of the US - Iran standoff, and the assassination of Iran's supreme leader. These events led to fluctuations in energy prices, changes in Fed policy expectations, and significant impacts on precious metal prices [38][39][40]. 3.2.2 Impact Analysis of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - Disappearance of Safe - Haven Benefits: The rise in the Middle East geopolitical situation in March did not lead to an increase in precious metal prices. This may be due to the fact that the safe - haven sentiment had been reflected in January, and in March, factors such as energy shocks, the dominance of the US dollar's safe - haven status, and liquidity management led to the suppression of precious metal prices [43][57][59]. - Short - Term Hawkish Disturbance in Monetary Policy Does Not Change the Medium - Term Loose Tone: Although the Fed's monetary policy expectations have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, considering the US economic situation, the dovish signal released by the Fed's March FOMC meeting, the short - term nature of geopolitical impacts, and the political factors, the Fed is more likely to cut rates in the medium term [76][82][91]. - High Inflation Reality but Controllable Inflation Expectations: Although the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up inflation, the market's expectations for a full - blown stagflation are relatively low, and the inflation expectations are still under control, so the positive impact on gold prices has not been effectively transmitted [94][95][96]. - Damage to the Long - Term Credit of the US Dollar: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is eroding the long - term credit foundation of the US dollar from multiple dimensions, promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and providing long - term strategic support for gold [100][101]. 3.2.3 Outlook for the Impact of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - In Q2 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation may evolve in three paths: a baseline scenario (65% probability) with limited US ground intervention and a "cold confrontation" pattern; a high - risk scenario (20% probability) with a full - scale conflict escalation; and a low - probability scenario (15% probability) with a rapid cooling of the conflict. Different scenarios will have different impacts on precious metal prices [102][103][105]. 3.3 Precious Metals Research Framework: Central Bank Gold Purchases are the Key to Support, and Investment Demand is the Core Driver 3.3.1 Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - Gold supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, investment demand accounts for the largest proportion and has a large volatility, followed by central bank gold purchases. Gold ETF investment is the core driver of the medium - term trend of gold prices, while jewelry demand and central bank gold purchases play a role in constraining and buffering [109][110][111]. - Since 2026, global gold ETFs have flowed out after an inflow in January, and the central bank's gold - purchasing rhythm has slowed down. However, the long - term logic of central bank gold purchases has not changed, and the 4300 area may be an important support level for central bank gold purchases [117][121][125]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, silver prices showed characteristics of high volatility, internal and external differentiation, and a combination of supply - demand gaps and macro - cycles. The global silver supply - demand gap is expected to continue in 2026, providing long - term support for prices. However, the silver market may face delivery squeeze risks, especially in the CME market [128][129][138]. 3.4 Market Outlook 3.4.1 Q2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the precious metals market. Geopolitical impacts may weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy and fundamentals. The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations and then rise, but more data support is needed [149][150]. 3.4.2 Strategies and Risks - In the short term, interval trading or low - buying layout is recommended, with strict control of positions and stop - losses. In the long term, focus on central bank gold purchases, the de - dollarization trend, and monetary policy rate - cut expectations, and buy gold at low prices during oscillations, with silver as an elastic auxiliary configuration [3][151]. - Risks include a full - scale escalation of geopolitical conflicts leading to a liquidity crisis, a continuous shift back of Fed rate - cut expectations, a general decline in assets due to liquidity panic, a slowdown in central bank gold - purchasing rhythm, or weak industrial demand for silver [5][152].