玉米紧供应VS弱需求，市场博弈寻平衡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The core contradiction in the corn market lies in the game between tight supply in the producing areas and weak downstream demand. Policy auctions and import substitution continue to cool market sentiment, and the short - term corn price gradually moves down under the interweaving of multiple factors [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Current Market Price Situation - This week, the national corn price maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. In the Northeast, the grass - roots grain sales are nearly over, and the grain rights have transferred to traders. In North China, the arrivals at deep - processing enterprises are at a high level, inventories are accumulating, and some enterprises have cut prices. In the southern sales areas, the prices are stable but weak due to the decline in northern port prices and the suppression of substitutes [5]. Situation of Grain Sales - The domestic corn - producing areas are in a pattern of continuous tight supply and intensified market game. In the Northeast main - producing areas, grass - roots grain sales are nearing the end, and the grain source is shifting from farmers to the trading link. The overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast is 82%, 3 percentage points higher than last week; the overall grain - selling progress in the North China and Huanghuai main - producing areas is about 76%, 4 percentage points higher than last week. The overall grain - selling progress is 6% lower than the same period last year, and the circulating grain source is continuously tight. In terms of inventory structure, the dry - grain inventories of traders and drying towers in the producing areas are lower than the same period last year, and most are in a state of cost inversion at the current spot price, with a strong willingness to hold prices. As the temperature rises, the storage pressure of grass - roots damp grain increases, and some farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has increased; but traders have no active price - cut and selling behavior due to cost pressure, and the sentiment of holding grain and waiting is still there. Overall, the prices in the producing areas are oscillating at a high level, with firm prices in the Northeast and narrow - range oscillations in North China [6]. Port Inventory and Price - This week, the prices of the north - south ports decreased slightly. The purchase price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port in the north dropped to 2345 - 2355 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of about 10 yuan/ton; the平仓 price was reported at 2390 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. This is mainly because traders in the Northeast producing areas are more willing to sell at high prices, the effective market supply has increased, and downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a significant accumulation of inventories at the four northern ports to 2.541 million tons, a weekly increase of 359,000 tons, while the shipping volume decreased by 117,000 tons to 635,000 tons, showing a situation of increasing port inventory and decreasing shipments. The price at Shekou Port in the south is relatively firm but overall weak. The self - pick - up price is maintained at 2500 yuan/ton, but the domestic trade inventory has dropped to 234,000 tons, and the domestic trade shipping volume has also decreased to 205,000 tons, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm of downstream pick - up. The prices in the sales areas are stable but weak, and the core pressure comes from the competition of substitutes. Although there is still a rigid demand for feed in the south, under the multiple substitutions of imported sorghum, barley and domestic wheat, the acceptance of high - priced domestic corn by enterprises in the sales areas is limited, and most of the purchases are made as needed. The market is full of waiting - and - seeing sentiment, resulting in a slowdown in port shipments and a loosening of prices in the sales areas [7]. Impact of Import Substitution and Policy Auctions - Imported grains and domestic policy auctions together form the core pressure and supply variables in the current corn market, and their impacts are mainly reflected in price competition, demand diversion and market sentiment. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley are suppressing the demand for domestic corn with significant price advantages. The price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port is 2470 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton lower than the corn price at the same port, which directly prompts feed enterprises to increase their purchases to reduce costs and squeezes the feed share of corn. The impact of policy auctions is more critical. Although the reserve price of the minimum - purchase - price rice auction has been lowered, the cost of processed brown rice is still over 3000 yuan/ton, so it does not form a real substitute for the corn market, and it is more of a policy - signal impact. If the reserve price of the targeted auction of old rice is significantly lowered to 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton, the theoretical port - collection cost of brown rice can be reduced to 2161 - 2325 yuan/ton, which will start to have the ability to compete with the current corn price at the northern ports and may become a new effective substitute. The incremental supply of policy wheat auctions is the most substantial source of pressure at present. The weak wheat price has prompted feed enterprises in North China and East China to increase the wheat substitution ratio to 20% - 50%, directly and massively squeezing the feed demand for corn. Overall, imported grains and policy auctions not only divert the corn demand through actual consumption but also change the market mentality. Traders are more willing to sell, and downstream enterprises slow down their purchases of high - priced corn due to diversified choices. The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment intensifies, jointly suppressing the upward space of corn prices [8][9].