地缘冲突延续，供应损失从预期向现实过渡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PTA/PX/MEG: Bullish [1][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually shift from expectation to reality, with a relatively strong fundamental outlook. Geopolitical disturbances have a significant impact on unilateral prices, and the valuation center of oil - based chemicals will rise significantly compared to the first quarter [4][47]. - Assuming crude oil remains at $100 per barrel, if PX supply becomes further tight, its price may rise to 11,000 yuan/ton, PTA valuation may reach 7,500 yuan/ton, and MEG may rise to 6,000 yuan/ton. If geopolitical tensions ease and crude oil falls to $80 per barrel, the lower - bound valuation of PX is about 8,400 yuan/ton, PTA is 5,800 yuan/ton, and MEG is about 4,500 yuan/ton [4][47]. - In the second quarter, it is relatively safer to layout long positions in PTA, PX, and MEG in the spot - futures and calendar spreads. One can consider selling PTA near - month put options below 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton on price pullbacks [4][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 26Q1 Market Review - From January to February 2026, PTA and PX prices rose slightly as crude oil prices rebounded moderately. Seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival limited their upside. After the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel in late February, the soft - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the transportation of crude oil and naphtha, leading to a significant increase in the valuation center of PTA and PX. However, due to more direct losses in near - term crude oil and naphtha, and PTA still in the inventory accumulation phase, the price increases of crude oil and naphtha were higher than those of downstream PTA and PX [12]. - MEG's supply situation reversed significantly during the geopolitical conflict. The supply losses came from three aspects: domestic ethylene - based plants reducing production, a loss of imports from the Middle East, and overseas demand for MEG from China's East - China ports. As a result, the MEG basis strengthened during the price increase [13]. PX: Supply - demand Expected to be Tight, Be Wary of Further Decline in Load - From January to February 2026, the total supply of PX increased by 8.8% year - on - year. After the geopolitical conflict, some PX plants at home and abroad announced defensive production cuts. Currently, the comprehensive load of Asian PX is 72.7%, a nearly 11% decline from the beginning of the month [18]. - In the second quarter, the supply - side risks of PX are still rising. There are pending planned maintenance of PX plants at home and abroad, and if the geopolitical situation persists, Asian refineries may further reduce PX plant loads due to raw material shortages. PXN valuation may have a chance to recover [20][23]. PTA: High Inventory Pressure to be Alleviated, Focus on Supply - side Changes - From January to February 2026, the domestic PTA output increased by 3.9% year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the high operating rate of PTA plants is not sustainable. Some plants have plans to reduce loads or conduct maintenance in the second quarter. The high inventory of PTA is the main factor suppressing its price, and the reduction of inventory depends on the reduction of supply - side loads [26][30]. MEG: Import Losses and Domestic Production Cuts Amplify De - stocking in the Second Quarter - From January to February 2026, the domestic MEG supply was at a high level in recent years. After the geopolitical conflict, MEG supply decreased rapidly due to import losses and domestic production cuts. In the second quarter, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the supply gap will deepen. MEG is expected to enter a rapid de - stocking phase, and its social inventory may drop from a high to a low level [31][39]. Polyester: Inventory Pressure is Not High, Focus on Terminal Order Receipt - From January to February 2026, the domestic polyester output increased by 2.3% year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the inventory level of polyester was effectively controlled. Currently, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the key is to track terminal orders and downstream weaving replenishment willingness. The terminal demand in the first quarter was strong, and if the geopolitical disturbance persists, overseas orders may flow back to China [41][45]. Summary and Outlook - In the second quarter, the supply - side risks of PX are still rising, and PXN valuation may recover. PTA may enter a de - stocking phase as its plant load decreases. MEG's supply - demand pattern has completely reversed, and its social inventory may drop significantly. The supply - demand of the polyester industry chain will gradually materialize, and the fundamentals may be strong. The valuation center of oil - based chemicals will rise. Appropriate investment strategies are recommended [46][47].