长牛未变，金价筑底

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bull market for gold remains intact, and the gold price is in the process of bottom - building. The second quarter is expected to see the gold price oscillate and build a bottom, with opportunities for configuration on pullbacks. [2][4] - Geopolitical disturbances, such as the Middle - East war, have increased the risk of global economic stagflation. The US economy faces challenges in terms of inflation, employment, and fiscal pressure. [2][23] - The Fed is in a difficult position. The threshold for raising interest rates is high, and its policy adjustment may lag behind the inflation rise. [2][44] - The global central banks' gold - buying speed has slowed down, which will increase the volatility of gold. [3][57] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Gold's Violent Fluctuations - First - quarter gold price trend review: London gold started at $4300 per ounce at the beginning of the year, reaching a high of $5598 per ounce on January 29 and a low of $4098 per ounce on March 23, with an amplitude of about 35%. The one - month at - the - money option volatility reached a maximum of 37.7%. [12] - Reasons for price fluctuations: In January, geopolitical risks and the silver short - squeeze pushed up the price. Then, the Fed's hawkish stance and the nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a price correction. In February, geopolitical risks drove a rebound. In March, due to the war's impact on energy prices and central banks' selling of gold reserves, the price fell. [12][15][21] 3.2 Middle - East War Intensifies Global Economic Stagflation Risk - First - quarter US economic performance and future risks: In Q1 2026, the US economy was in the expansion zone, but there were signs of stagflation. Energy price hikes and tariff policies will increase inflation pressure, and the employment market is not stable. [23][27] - Rapid rise in inflation pressure: Energy prices soared in March, and the US CPI is expected to rise significantly in Q2. Tariff policies also contribute to inflation. [30][31] - Unstable employment market: Since the second half of 2025, the US employment market has been weak. In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000. The employment market shows a decline in vitality. [33][35] 3.3 The Fed is in a Dilemma and May Lag Behind the Situation - Delayed Fed rate - cut expectations and high rate - hike threshold: In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased, and there are signs of a possible rate hike. However, due to the supply - side shock, the rate - hike threshold is high. [44][45] - Increased military spending and greater US fiscal pressure: The Trump administration's fiscal policy is expansionary. The military strike against Iran has increased military spending, and the fiscal deficit may increase. [53][54] - Slowed global central banks' gold - buying and increased gold volatility: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying volume decreased by 21% year - on - year. In 2026, some central banks sold gold reserves, increasing gold's volatility. [57][58] 3.4 Summary and Outlook: Gold Oscillates to Build a Bottom and Wait for Configuration Opportunities - Gold outlook: The long - term gold bull market is not over. In Q2, the gold price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. The support price for London gold is $4000 per ounce, and the high is seen at $5300 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures main contract will operate in the range of 900 - 1200 yuan per gram. [4][67] - Silver outlook: The silver price has returned to normal after reaching a peak. The gold - silver ratio has room to rise. The London silver price is expected to operate in the range of $60 - 100 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract will operate in the range of 15,000 - 23,000 yuan per gram. [70][73]